Historic Chases · 2026-07-23

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-23

Gavin Williams (CLE) threw an IMMACULATE INNING (inning 4: 3 K on 9 pitches) ▶︎ watch.

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has struck out 154 times, projecting to 242. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (33) — one every 11.2 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The AL West is a coin flip: Rangers (51-51) lead Mariners by 0.5. The Rays' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Pena in 2007. Junior Caminero (TB) projects to 46 and would tie it.

The so-what: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) is holding an AL Triple Crown — he leads the AL in average (.328), home runs (34) and RBI (77). Across both leagues he is 2nd in MLB in average. No one has won a Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera in 2012, and only 17 have ever been won. Hold all three to the end and it is one of the rarest seasons in the sport.

Lines of the night: Jack Anderson earned his first career save ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 20 in 100 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.1% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 52 in 431 this season); Junior Caminero (TB) — walk rate up from 6.4% to 12.8% (41 in 643 plate appearances in 2025, 57 in 444 this season). 3 of 312 rate comparisons across 61 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Start streaks: Gavin Williams has struck out 8 or more in each of his last three starts (11, 11, 11).

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

Tightest race: the AL West — Rangers (51-51) lead Mariners (51-52) by 0.5.

Year-over-year: the White Sox are 54-47 — 17 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (37-66).

Rookie watch: Sal Stewart (CIN) has 74 RBI — fourth in the major leagues (from a board of 52).

Rookie watch: Kazuma Okamoto has 22 HR and 62 RBI in 100 games — the most home runs by a rookie this season (from 10 on the board).

On this date in 2009, Mark Buehrle of the White Sox threw a no-hitter.

Clean gloves: the Cardinals have played 7 straight errorless games.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) has 21 home runs — and none in 12 games. The longest quiet stretch of his season is costing him the pace.

From nowhere: Junior Caminero is now 5th in MLB in home runs — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

From nowhere: Nick Gonzales (PIT) is now 4th in MLB in batting average — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 21 HR / 25 SB — 9 homers and 5 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 33/40.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons

Yordan Alvarez has 34 home runs through 104 team games, 11 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (45). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 23.7% reached 50 and 2.2% reached 60 (n=93).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-22 season

If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 148, it would rank No. 22 among all seasons since 1901 — only 21 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.38 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400