Historic Chases · 2026-07-25

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-25

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Javier Assad earned his first career save ▶︎ watch; Shawn Ross made his MLB DEBUT.

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has struck out 155 times, projecting to 239. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (33) — one every 11.5 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The AL Central is a coin flip: Sox (54-49) lead Guardians by 1.5. The Rays' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Pena in 2007. Junior Caminero (TB) projects to 45 and would finish 1 short.

Lines of the night: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) homered for the 23rd time and stole his 26th base — seven homers and four steals from a 30/30 season; James Triantos made his MLB DEBUT and went 1-for-1 ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 20 in 102 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.0% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 53 in 441 this season); Junior Caminero (TB) — walk rate up from 6.4% to 12.6% (41 in 643 plate appearances in 2025, 57 in 453 this season). 3 of 312 rate comparisons across 61 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

History movers: Marlins — Losing Streak: 11 now, modern record 23 (Philadelphia Phillies, 1961).

The so-what: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) has 34 home runs through 106 team games, a 52-homer pace — 11 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (45 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The hot hand: Jake McCarthy (COL) brings a 11-game hitting streak into tonight. The benchmarks ahead: 20 gets noticed, 30 gets a nightly countdown.

Tightest race: the AL Central — White Sox (54-49) lead Guardians (54-52) by 1.5.

Year-over-year: the Braves are 61-43 — 17 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (44-58).

Rookie watch: Sal Stewart (CIN) has 75 RBI — fourth in the major leagues (from a board of 52).

Rookie watch: Kazuma Okamoto has 23 HR and 65 RBI in 102 games — the most home runs by a rookie this season (from 10 on the board).

Streak ladder: the Marlins have lost 11 straight — 10 shy of the 2024 White Sox (AL record) (21); 12 shy of the 1961 Phillies (modern record) (23).

On this date in 2024, Dylan Cease (TOR) of the Padres threw a no-hitter (one of 2 thrown on this date).

Clean gloves: the Cardinals have played 9 straight errorless games.

The power outage is plural: Jordan Walker (22 HR) hasn't homered in 13 games; Zach Neto (19 HR) hasn't homered in 12 games. The longest quiet stretches of their seasons are costing them the pace.

From nowhere: Nick Gonzales (PIT) is now 4th in MLB in batting average — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

From nowhere: Ben Rice (NYY) is now 5th in MLB in RBI — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 23 HR / 26 SB — 7 homers and 4 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 36/40.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons

Yordan Alvarez has 34 home runs through 106 team games, 11 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (45). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 23.7% reached 50 and 2.2% reached 60 (n=93).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.39 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Only X seasons ever

Yordan Alvarez is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Yordan Alvarez would reach at least .320 AVG, 50 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 12 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Luis Gonzalez (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400