Historic Chases · 2026-07-25

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-25

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Javier Assad earned his first career save ▶︎ watch; Shawn Ross made his MLB DEBUT.

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has struck out 155 times, projecting to 239. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (33) — one every 11.5 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The AL Central is a coin flip: Sox (54-49) lead Guardians by 1.5. The Rays' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Pena in 2007. Junior Caminero (TB) projects to 45 and would finish 1 short.

Lines of the night: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) homered for the 23rd time and stole his 26th base — seven homers and four steals from a 30/30 season; James Triantos made his MLB DEBUT and went 1-for-1 ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 20 in 102 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.0% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 53 in 441 this season); Junior Caminero (TB) — walk rate up from 6.4% to 12.6% (41 in 643 plate appearances in 2025, 57 in 453 this season). 3 of 312 rate comparisons across 61 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

History movers: Marlins — Losing Streak: 11 now, modern record 23 (Philadelphia Phillies, 1961).

The so-what: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) has 34 home runs through 106 team games, a 52-homer pace — 11 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (45 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons

Yordan Alvarez has 34 home runs through 106 team games, 11 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (45). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 23.7% reached 50 and 2.2% reached 60 (n=93).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.39 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Only X seasons ever

Yordan Alvarez is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Yordan Alvarez would reach at least .320 AVG, 50 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 12 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Luis Gonzalez (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400