Historic Chases · 2026-07-29

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-29

The box scores did the talking last night: Junior Caminero (265) passed Toby Hall (251) on the Rays' all-time RBI list; Jonathan Aranda (222) passed Julio Lugo (212) on the Rays' all-time RBI list.

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has struck out 157 times, projecting to 233. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (33) — one every 11.7 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The AL West is a coin flip: Rangers (55-53) lead Astros by 1. The Nationals' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood (WSH) projects to 45 and would finish 1 short.

The so-what: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) is on a 30/30 pace — 24 HR and 26 SB, projecting to 36/39. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Power and speed in the same season is the whole story from here.

Lines of the night: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) homered for the 24th time — six homers and four steals from a 30/30 season; Shohei Ohtani (799) passed Jackie Robinson (734) on the Dodgers' all-time RBI list; Yordan Alvarez (653) passed Doug Rader (600) on the Astros' all-time RBI list; Baltimore Orioles came back from 7 runs down to win; The San Francisco Giants hung 16 runs on the Milwaukee Brewers (16-3).

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 21 in 105 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.0% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 55 in 460 this season). 2 of 318 rate comparisons across 62 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Start streaks: Cam Schlittler (NYY) has struck out 8 or more in each of his last three starts (8, 12, 8).

Also last night: Daniel Susac hit his first career home run — and his second ▶︎ watch; One night, three Rays up the franchise RBI list: Junior Caminero (265) past Toby Hall; Jonathan Aranda (222) past Julio Lugo; Yandy Díaz (548) past Ben Zobrist.

Milestones reached last night: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) reached 30 SB.

Sweep watch: the Marlins swept the Phillies (3 games) — their 3rd sweep in 27 days. 1 other club was swept the same night.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons

Yordan Alvarez has 35 home runs through 110 team games, 11 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (46). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 20% reached 50 and 2.1% reached 60 (n=95).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-23 season

If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 146, it would rank No. 23 among all seasons since 1901 — only 22 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.39 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400