Historic Chases · 2026-08-07

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-08-07

Overnight: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) added 2 strikeouts. Schwarber has struck out 172 times, projecting to 238. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he is top-5 in MLB in home runs (33) — one every 12.5 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The box scores did the talking last night: Kaelen Culpepper hit his first career home run ▶︎ watch; Ryan Waldschmidt ended it with a walk-off — his first career walk-off hit ▶︎ watch.

Collapse watch in the NL West: the Dodgers' lead over the D-backs was 11.5 games 18 days ago — it's 7.5 now. The Dodgers have gone 6-9 while the D-backs went 11-6.

The so-what: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) is on a 30/30 pace — 26 HR and 30 SB, projecting to 36/42. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.

History movers: Red Sox — Win Streak: 9 now, modern record 22 (Cleveland Indians, 2017) · Athletics — Losing Streak: 9 now, modern record 23 (Philadelphia Phillies, 1961).

Lines of the night: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) stole his 30th base — that half of a 30/30 season is done, and he is four homers away; Ryan McMahon ended it with a walk-off ▶︎ watch; Héctor Rodríguez notched his first career hit; Christian Franklin notched his first career hit; Brett Bateman made his MLB DEBUT and went 1-for-2 ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.4% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 62 in 501 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 22 in 114 this season; Junior Caminero (TB) — walk rate up from 6.4% to 12.7% (41 in 643 plate appearances in 2025, 63 in 498 this season). 3 of 300 rate comparisons across 59 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Start streaks: Drew Rasmussen (TB) has struck out 8 or more AND allowed no earned run in each of his last three starts (9, 10, 8 K; 20 scoreless innings).

Also last night: Stuff watch: Ben Brown's knuckle-curve has run 2.2 mph under his 13-start baseline for 3 straight starts (84.94 vs 87.09); Stuff watch: Dylan Cease's four-seamer has run 1.8 mph under his 15-start baseline for 3 straight starts (95.86 vs 97.62); Luis Torrens recorded his first stolen base of the season — in his game No. 69.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons

Yordan Alvarez has 35 home runs through 117 team games, 15 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (50). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44 (95% CI 43-46); 13% reached 50 (8.5-19.4% at 95% confidence), from 146 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Rays' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Peña in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 46 and would tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.38 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2024. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Yordan Alvarez resemble?

The completed season closest to Yordan Alvarez's projected shape is Adrian Beltre's 2004 (80% similarity). The match is strongest in power, run production, runs; the largest difference is speed. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400