Historic Chases · 2026-08-22

← 2026-08-21 All days 2026-08-23 →

Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-08-22

JJ Bleday hit for the CYCLE (4-for-6, HR, 3B, 2B, 1B) — cycles happen about 4 times a season — the first since July 10, 2026 — his first ▶︎ watch; Dylan Cease (TOR) carried a NO-HITTER into the 7th — broken up by a single — and allowed two hits over 6.2 innings (8 K) ▶︎ watch.

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) extended his lead in home runs to 2 — 38 on the season.

No club in baseball has been hotter: the Padres have won 21 of their last 30, 2 clear of the next club among the 30 with 30 games played. They were 3 games under .500 on March 31 (1-4); they are 70-60 now. The Phillies have won 8 straight, and are 8-2 in their last 10. Collapse watch in the NL East: the Braves' lead over the Phillies was 7.5 games 18 days ago — it's 3.0 now. The Braves have gone 7-10 while the Phillies went 11-5.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), an ERA of 1.68, 5th among the 4,338 qualified seasons since 1969 and 13.41 strikeouts per nine innings, tied for 3rd among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file with Randy Johnson's 13.41 in 2001, behind Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019 and Spencer Strider's 13.55 in 2023; Dylan Cease (TOR), 13.03 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th. The earned run average rank is given from 1969 on because the lowest earned run averages were thrown before the mound was lowered in 1969, and a rank across those eras is not a comparison the numbers support.

Lines of the night: Two go-ahead plays: Randy Arozarena's walk-off home run in the 9th beat the Cubs 5-4 — and he hit 2 home runs and led off the game with a home run ▶︎ watch; Dylan Beavers' walk-off double in the 10th beat the Rays 3-2 ▶︎ watch. Tarik Skubal struck out 11 over 7.0 IP — a season high, past his previous 7 ▶︎ watch; Three starts of note: Ryan Johnson allowed one hit over 7.0 scoreless innings (3 K) ▶︎ watch; Shane McClanahan went 5.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch; Blade Tidwell went 5.2 scoreless ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.2% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 69 in 564 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 24 in 127 this season; Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 23.4% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 98 in 419 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.5% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 454 this season). 4 of 785 rate comparisons across 153 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

Went deep more than once: Luis Robert Jr. hit 2 home runs ▶︎ watch.

History movers: Phillies — Win Streak: 8 now, modern record 22 (Cleveland Indians, 2017).

Also last night: Elly De La Cruz (CIN) homered for the first time since August 7, ending a 14-game drought — his 21st of the season; The Philadelphia Phillies beat the St. Louis Cardinals 12-3 — all nine starters hit safely, 14 hits through the order.

Streak watch: Gabriel Moreno (AZ) extended his hitting streak to 15 games. The next benchmarks: 20 gets noticed, 30 gets a nightly countdown, 44 ties Pete Rose's NL record, 56 is DiMaggio.

The so-what: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has 38 home runs through 130 team games, a 47-homer pace — 17 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (55 of his eventual 73). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

01

Gabriel Moreno (AZ) has a 15-game hitting streak; a hit in his next game would extend it to 16. Next scheduled opponent: Cincinnati Reds.

02

Pete Alonso (BAL) has a 14-game hitting streak; a hit in his next game would extend it to 15. Next scheduled opponent: Tampa Bay Rays.

03

Chandler Simpson (TB) has a 13-game hitting streak; a hit in his next game would extend it to 14. Next scheduled opponent: Baltimore Orioles.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 38 home runs through 130 team games, 17 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (55). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44 (95% CI 43-44); 5.7% reached 50 (3-10.5% at 95% confidence), from 157 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play
Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Astros' single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 45 and would finish 2 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.36 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2024. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (82% similarity). The match is strongest in hit volume, runs, speed; the largest difference is average. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Closest to .400
.323AVG
64 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
EXTREME
Home Run Leader
38HR
47 projected HR · 17 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
159H
198 projected H · 51 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
42SB
52 projected SB · 63 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
332B
41 projected 2B · 21 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
153B
19 projected 3B · 14 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Strikeout Leader
216K
269 projected K · record 383 (Nolan Ryan)
IMPOSSIBLE
ERA Leader
1.68ERA
145.0 IP · chasing a sub-2.00 finish
ON PACE
Triple Crown Watch (AL)
.319AVG · 36 HR · 90 RBI
none higher AVG, none higher HR, none higher RBI 28.8% over 20,000 simulated seasons · full race on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
32/31HR/SB
40/39 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 1 other in the hunt
ACHIEVED
Saves Leader
Bryan BakerTB
36SV
45 projected SV · record 62
EXTREME
Wins Leader (Team)
BrewersMIL
81W
101 projected wins · record 116
IMPOSSIBLE
Run Differential Leader
BrewersMIL
+163
+203 projected run differential