Historic Chases · 2026-08-24 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-08-24

Blake Adams made his MLB DEBUT and threw 1.0 innings and allowed 5 runs.

CJ Abrams is on a 30/30 pace — 29 HR and 26 SB, projecting to 35/32. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Neither half carries it alone; the season has to finish on both.

Lines of the night: Cal Raleigh hit 3 home runs — three-homer games happen roughly 15 times a season ▶︎ watch; Two go-ahead plays: Anthony Seigler's tiebreaking triple in the 9th put the Red Sox ahead for good in a 4-2 win over the Marlins — and he hit his first career triple ▶︎ watch; Nick Gonzales' tiebreaking single in the 12th put the Pirates ahead for good in a 3-2 win over the Padres ▶︎ watch. Kevin Gausman went 7.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch; CJ Abrams stole his 26th base — one homer and four steals from a 30/30 season.

Also last night: The Washington Nationals beat the Colorado Rockies 13-3; The Texas Rangers beat the Chicago White Sox 11-2; Yohan Ramírez struck out all three men he faced to close out his club's night (1.0 IP) ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.2% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 70 in 574 this season); Jackson Merrill — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 24 in 129 this season. 2 of 269 rate comparisons across 45 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Milestones reached last night: Fernando Tatis Jr. reached 30 SB.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 39 home runs through 132 team games, 17 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (56). Comparable chases finished with a median of 45 (95% CI 44-46); 10.2% reached 50 (6-16.6% at 95% confidence), from 128 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 45 and would finish 2 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (83% similarity). The match is strongest in hit volume, runs, speed; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400