Historic Chases · 2026-08-24 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-08-24

Blake Adams made his MLB DEBUT and threw 1.0 innings and allowed 5 runs.

Kyle Schwarber has struck out 187 times, projecting to 230. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (39) — one every 12.0 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The so-what: CJ Abrams is on a 30/30 pace — 29 HR and 26 SB, projecting to 35/32. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Neither half carries it alone; the season has to finish on both.

Lines of the night: CJ Abrams stole his 26th base — one homer and four steals from a 30/30 season; Cal Raleigh hit 3 home runs — three-homer games happen roughly 15 times a season ▶︎ watch; Anthony Seigler's tiebreaking triple in the 9th put the Red Sox ahead for good in a 4-2 win over the Marlins — and he hit his first career triple ▶︎ watch; Nick Gonzales' tiebreaking single in the 12th put the Pirates ahead for good in a 3-2 win over the Padres ▶︎ watch; Kevin Gausman went 7.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch.

Also last night: The Washington Nationals beat the Colorado Rockies 13-3; The Texas Rangers beat the Chicago White Sox 11-2; Yohan Ramírez struck out all three men he faced to close out his club's night (1.0 IP) ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.2% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 70 in 574 this season); Jackson Merrill — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 24 in 129 this season. 2 of 269 rate comparisons across 45 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Milestones reached last night: Fernando Tatis Jr. reached 30 SB.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The stretch run — 133 team games down, the crowns are in play. AL HR crown: Yordan Alvarez 36, Junior Caminero 35 — pace says 44–43; a coin flip to the wire · NL RBI crown: Sal Stewart 98, Alec Burleson 96 — pace says 120–117; a coin flip to the wire · AL Batting title: Yordan Alvarez .32, Chandler Simpson .31 · NL Batting title: Luis Arraez .321, Nick Gonzales .308.

On this date in 1975, Ed Halicki of the Giants threw a no-hitter.

Kyle Schwarber sits at 39 home runs — one from the 40 mark.

José Ramírez and Esteury Ruiz both sit within one of the 30-steal mark (closest: 29).

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 39 home runs through 132 team games, 17 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (56). Comparable chases finished with a median of 45 (95% CI 44-46); 10.2% reached 50 (6-16.6% at 95% confidence), from 128 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 45 and would finish 2 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (83% similarity). The match is strongest in hit volume, runs, speed; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400