No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: James Wood hit an INSIDE-THE-PARK home run — a half-dozen or so happen a season ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-05-19 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Oneil Cruz has struck out 74 times, projecting to 250. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.
Also last night: The Washington Nationals came back from 5 runs down to win 9-6, and the New York Mets blew a 5-run lead.
The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 3-for-4 last night and pushed his average up 9 points to .346. The gap to .400 is now .054.
The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 20 home runs through 49 team games, a 66-homer pace — 5 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (25 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 20 home runs through 49 team games, 5 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (25). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44 (95% CI 42-46); 19.1% reached 50 (11.5-30% at 95% confidence), from 68 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-3 season
If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 66, it would rank No. 3 among all seasons since 1901 — only 2 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 221 hits, set by Juan Pierre in 2004. Otto Lopez projects to 218 and would finish 3 short.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination
At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.346AVG
18 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
LONG SHOT
Home Run Leader
20HR
66 projected HR · 5 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
66H
218 projected H · 13 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
20SB
65 projected SB · 20 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
162B
53 projected 2B · 4 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
63B
21 projected 3B · 4 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.294AVG · 10 HR · 42 RBI
.052 back AVG, 10 back HR, none higher RBI full race on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
10/16HR/SB
34/54 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 6 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Braves
33W
109 projected wins · record 116
NEAR PACE
Run Differential Leader
Dodgers
+94
+311 projected run differential