No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Jonah Cox hit his first career home run ▶︎ watch; Matt Chapman drove in 8 runs ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-06-05 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Lines of the night: Luis Torrens hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 39 ▶︎ watch.
Found velocity: Reid Detmers's four-seamer averaged 95.2 mph — his hardest start of the season, 1.2 mph over his 10-start baseline.
What changed from last season: Rafael Devers — walk rate down from 15.6% to 6.3% (112 in 719 plate appearances in 2025, 17 in 268 this season). 1 of 262 rate comparisons across 44 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.
The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 23 home runs through 63 team games, a 59-homer pace — 9 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (32 of his eventual 73). That gap is the whole story: it closes, or the chase does.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 23 home runs through 63 team games, 9 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (32). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44 (95% CI 42-45); 18.7% reached 50 (12.8-26.5% at 95% confidence), from 123 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-12 season
If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 59, it would rank No. 12 among all seasons since 1901 — only 11 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 121 RBI, set by Carlos Peña in 2007. Jonathan Aranda projects to 119 and would finish 2 short.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Pete Alonso's 2019 (70% similarity). The match is strongest in runs, speed, hit volume; the largest difference is run production. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.332AVG
24 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
LONG SHOT
Home Run Leader
23HR
59 projected HR · 9 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
82H
208 projected H · 22 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
22SB
56 projected SB · 29 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
202B
51 projected 2B · 6 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
83B
21 projected 3B · 6 behind Wilson's 36 pace
30/30 Club Pace
14/20HR/SB
35/51 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 5 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Braves
43W
109 projected wins · record 116
NEAR PACE
Run Differential Leader
Dodgers
+134
+339 projected run differential