Bryce Harper hit for the CYCLE (4-for-5, HR, 3B, 2B, 1B) — happens about a half-dozen times a season ▶︎ watch. And it wasn't alone: jake mccarthy hit a leadoff inside-the-park home run — years pass between one and the next ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-06-20 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Kyle Schwarber has struck out 112 times, projecting to 239. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (28) — one every 10.0 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
History movers: Kyle Schwarber, after a three-homer night — Home Runs: 28 now, pace 60, record 73 (Barry Bonds) · Byron Buxton, after homering — Home Runs: 24 now, pace 50, record 73 (Barry Bonds).
HISTORY LAST NIGHT: Jake McCarthy hit a LEADOFF INSIDE-THE-PARK home run — years pass between one and the next ▶︎ watch.
Lines of the night: Kyle Schwarber hit 3 home runs — happens roughly a dozen times a season ▶︎ watch.
Milestones reached last night: Otto Lopez reached 100 hits.
The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 1-for-5 last night and saw his average slip 2 points to .332. The gap to .400 is now .068.
The so-what: through 76 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 6 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (34 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .332 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .464 clip the rest of the way (154-for-332). That is .004 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .460; an 0-for-4 raises it to .470.
On this date in 2015, Max Scherzer of the Nationals threw a no-hitter.
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 16 HR / 18 SB — 14 homers short and 12 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 34/38.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 28 home runs through 76 team games, 11 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (39). Comparable chases finished with a median of 48; 36.5% reached 50 and 11.5% reached 60 (n=52).
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-9 season
If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 60, it would rank No. 9 among all seasons since 1901 — only 8 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 49 home runs, set by Harmon Killebrew in 1964. Byron Buxton projects to 50 and projects to clear it by 1.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination
At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 100 RBI. Only 8 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001), Mark McGwire (1999).
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021Closest to .400
.332AVG
35 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
EXTREME
Home Run Leader
28HR
60 projected HR · 6 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
100H
210 projected H · 24 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
28SB
59 projected SB · 34 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
232B
49 projected 2B · 8 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
93B
19 projected 3B · 8 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.320· 24 HR · 55 RBI
5 / 2 / 5 in AVG/HR/RBI league ranks — full board on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
16/18HR/SB
34/38 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 2 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Dodgers
49W
103 projected wins · record 116
LONG SHOT
Run Differential Leader
Dodgers
+144
+303 projected run differential