No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Taylor Trammell hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 31 ▶︎ watch; Joey Loperfido hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 32 ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-06-23 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Zach Neto has struck out 116 times, projecting to 232. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.
History movers: Yordan Alvarez — Triple Crown (MLB) · Corbin Carroll — Triples: 9 now, pace 18, record 36 (Chief Wilson).
Lines of the night: Kahlil Watson hit his FIRST career home run ▶︎ watch; Yainer Diaz, Cam Smith, Taylor Trammell went BACK-TO-BACK-TO-BACK — back-to-back-to-back happens a few times a season; Logan VanWey earned his FIRST career win ▶︎ watch; Brandyn Garcia earned his FIRST career save ▶︎ watch; Alex Call hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 48 ▶︎ watch.
Milestones reached last night: Nasim Nuñez reached 30 SB.
The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 2-for-5 last night and pushed his average up 1 point to .337. The gap to .400 is now .063.
The so-what: through 79 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 7 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (36 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .337 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .463 clip the rest of the way (148-for-320). That is .001 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .459; an 0-for-4 raises it to .468.
On this date in 1971, Rick Wise of the Phillies threw a no-hitter (one of 2 thrown on this date).
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 17 HR / 18 SB — 13 homers short and 12 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 35/37.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 29 home runs through 79 team games, 10 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (39). Comparable chases finished with a median of 48; 38.3% reached 50 and 3.3% reached 60 (n=60).
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-10 season
If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 59, it would rank No. 10 among all seasons since 1901 — only 9 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Pete Alonso's 2019 (75% similarity). The match is strongest in speed, runs, hit volume; the largest difference is run production. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021Closest to .400
.337AVG
34 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
EXTREME
Home Run Leader
29HR
59 projected HR · 7 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
105H
213 projected H · 24 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
31SB
63 projected SB · 33 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
232B
48 projected 2B · 9 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
93B
18 projected 3B · 9 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.325· 25 HR · 56 RBI
3 / 2 / 6 in AVG/HR/RBI league ranks — full board on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
17/18HR/SB
35/37 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 2 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Dodgers
51W
103 projected wins · record 116
LONG SHOT
Run Differential Leader
Dodgers
+143
+290 projected run differential