Historic Chases · 2026-06-23 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-06-23

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Taylor Trammell hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 31 ▶︎ watch; Joey Loperfido hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 32 ▶︎ watch.

Zach Neto has struck out 116 times, projecting to 232. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

Lines of the night: Yainer Diaz, Cam Smith, Taylor Trammell went BACK-TO-BACK-TO-BACK; Kahlil Watson hit his first career home run ▶︎ watch; The Philadelphia Phillies came back from 5 runs down to win 14-9, and the Washington Nationals blew a 5-run lead; Logan VanWey earned his first career win ▶︎ watch; Brandyn Garcia earned his first career save ▶︎ watch.

Also last night: Alex Call hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 48 ▶︎ watch.

Milestones reached last night: Nasim Nuñez reached 30 SB.

The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 29 home runs through 79 team games, a 59-homer pace — 10 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (39 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 29 home runs through 79 team games, 10 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (39). Comparable chases finished with a median of 48 (95% CI 47-50); 39.7% reached 50 (28.1-52.5% at 95% confidence), from 58 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-12 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 59, it would rank No. 12 among all seasons since 1901 — only 11 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Pete Alonso's 2019 (75% similarity). The match is strongest in speed, runs, hit volume; the largest difference is run production. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400