No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Junior Caminero hit 3 home runs — happens roughly a dozen times a season ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-06-25 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Kyle Schwarber has struck out 117 times, projecting to 234. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (29) — one every 10.0 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
The so-what: through 81 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 8 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (36 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .340 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .460 clip the rest of the way (145-for-315). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .457; an 0-for-4 raises it to .466.
On this date in 2022, 3 Astros pitchers combined for a no-hitter (one of 4 thrown on this date).
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 17 HR / 18 SB — 13 homers short and 12 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 34/36.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 29 home runs through 81 team games, 10 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (39). Comparable chases finished with a median of 48; 38.3% reached 50 and 3.3% reached 60 (n=60).
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-12 season
If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 58, it would rank No. 12 among all seasons since 1901 — only 11 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Pete Alonso's 2019 (75% similarity). The match is strongest in runs, speed, average; the largest difference is run production. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021Closest to .400
.340AVG
32 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
EXTREME
Home Run Leader
29HR
58 projected HR · 8 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
107H
214 projected H · 24 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
31SB
61 projected SB · 35 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
232B
47 projected 2B · 10 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
93B
18 projected 3B · 9 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.318· 25 HR · 56 RBI
6 / 2 / 7 in AVG/HR/RBI league ranks — full board on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
17/18HR/SB
34/36 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 3 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Dodgers
52W
104 projected wins · record 116
LONG SHOT
Run Differential Leader
Dodgers
+144
+288 projected run differential