No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Jose Trevino hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 19 ▶︎ watch; Josh Smith hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 36 ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-07-02 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Also last night: The Los Angeles Dodgers came back from 6 runs down to win 12-7, and the San Diego Padres blew a 6-run lead.
Lines of the night: Bryce Miller carried a NO-HITTER into the 7th — broken up by a single ▶︎ watch.
History movers: Rays — Win Streak: 8 now, modern record 22 (Cleveland Indians, 2017).
Sweep watch: the Rays swept the Royals (3 games) — their 3rd sweep in 25 days. 1 other club was swept the same night.
The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 30 home runs through 88 team games, a 55-homer pace — 9 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (39 of his eventual 73). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 30 home runs through 88 team games, 9 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (39). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46 (95% CI 44-47); 25% reached 50 (17.7-34.1% at 95% confidence), from 104 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 47 and would tie it.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Mark Trumbo's 2016 (73% similarity). The match is strongest in speed, average, run production; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.336AVG
37 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
EXTREME
Home Run Leader
30HR
55 projected HR · 9 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
115H
212 projected H · 27 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
32SB
59 projected SB · 39 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
242B
45 projected 2B · 12 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
73B
13 projected 3B · 12 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.279AVG · 19 HR · 64 RBI
.057 back AVG, 11 back HR, none higher RBI full race on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
19/21HR/SB
35/39 projected HR/SB · team-game pace
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Dodgers
57W
105 projected wins · record 116
LONG SHOT
Run Differential Leader
Dodgers
+162
+298 projected run differential