Historic Chases · 2026-07-01 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-01

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Nasim Nuñez hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 82 ▶︎ watch; Andrés Chaparro hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 26 ▶︎ watch.

Kyle Schwarber has struck out 127 times, projecting to 236. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (30) — one every 10.4 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

History movers: Yordan Alvarez — Triple Crown (MLB) · Hunter Goodman, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 27 now, pace 50.3, record 49 (Larry Walker).

Lines of the night: Dansby Swanson hit 3 home runs — happens roughly a dozen times a season ▶︎ watch; Dansby Swanson drove in 8 runs — 7+ RBI nights happen about 15 times a season ▶︎ watch; Joe Mack hit an INSIDE-THE-PARK home run — a half-dozen or so happen a season ▶︎ watch; Sung-Mun Song hit his FIRST career home run ▶︎ watch; Sean Keys hit his FIRST career home run ▶︎ watch.

Milestones reached last night: Yordan Alvarez reached 100 hits.

The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 1-for-4 last night and saw his average slip 1 point to .332. The gap to .400 is now .068.

The so-what: through 87 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 9 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (39 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .332 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .481 clip the rest of the way (140-for-291). That is .005 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .477; an 0-for-4 raises it to .488.

On this date in 1990, Andy Hawkins of the Yankees threw a no-hitter (one of 3 thrown on this date).

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 19 HR / 21 SB — 11 homers short and 9 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 35/39.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 30 home runs through 87 team games, 9 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (39). Comparable chases finished with a median of 48; 33.8% reached 50 and 4.4% reached 60 (n=68).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-19 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 56, it would rank No. 19 among all seasons since 1901 — only 18 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 47 and projects to tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Pete Alonso's 2019 (74% similarity). The match is strongest in runs, speed, power; the largest difference is run production. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400