Historic Chases · 2026-07-19

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-19

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Hunter Goodman (COL) hit 3 home runs ▶︎ watch; The San Diego Padres hung 19 runs on the Kansas City Royals (19-2) — a 17-run margin.

The AL West is a coin flip: Rangers (50-49) lead Mariners by 0.5. The Rockies' single-season record is 49 home runs, set by Larry Walker in 1997. Hunter Goodman (COL) projects to 48 and would finish 1 short.

History movers: Red Sox — Win Streak: 13 now, modern record 22 (Cleveland Indians, 2017).

Sweep watch: the Red Sox swept the Rays (4 games) — their 5th sweep in 25 days. Only 2.3% of team-seasons since 1897 have swept 5 clubs inside 30 days — 71 of 3043. 2 other clubs were swept the same night.

Lines of the night: Arizona Diamondbacks came back from 7 runs down to win; Drake Baldwin had a perfect day: 5-for-5 ▶︎ watch; Victor Mesa Jr. hit an INSIDE-THE-PARK home run — a half-dozen or so happen a season ▶︎ watch; Geraldo Perdomo hit an INSIDE-THE-PARK home run — a half-dozen or so happen a season ▶︎ watch; Grant Wolfram earned his first career save ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 20 in 96 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.5% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 48 in 418 this season). 2 of 328 rate comparisons across 63 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Milestones reached last night: Hunter Goodman (COL) reached 30 HR.

The so-what: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has 33 home runs through 100 team games, a 53-homer pace — 10 behind McGwire's 1998 total at the same point (43 of his eventual 70). That gap is the whole story: it closes, or the chase does.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 33 home runs through 100 team games, 10 behind Mark McGwire's 1998 pace at the same checkpoint (43). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 26.9% reached 50 and 2.2% reached 60 (n=93).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play
If the pace holds

A projected top-22 season

If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 147, it would rank No. 22 among all seasons since 1901 — only 21 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021
The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.38 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021
Closest to .400
.335AVG
43 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
EXTREME
Home Run Leader
33HR
53 projected HR · 9 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
130H
211 projected H · 32 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
37SB
60 projected SB · 43 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
272B
44 projected 2B · 14 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
103B
16 projected 3B · 12 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Strikeout Leader
167K
273 projected K · record 383 (Nolan Ryan)
EXTREME
ERA Leader
1.62ERA
111.0 IP · chasing a sub-2.00 finish
ON PACE
Triple Crown Watch (AL)
.319AVG · 31 HR · 73 RBI
none higher AVG, none higher HR, none higher RBI full race on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
21/25HR/SB
34/41 projected HR/SB · team-game pace
ON PACE
Saves Leader
Cade SmithCLE
28SV
45 projected SV · record 62
EXTREME
Wins Leader (Team)
DodgersLAD
63W
102 projected wins · record 116
EXTREME
Run Differential Leader
DodgersLAD
+155
+251 projected run differential