Historic Chases · 2026-07-20

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-20

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Petey Halpin hit his first career home run — and his second ▶︎ watch; Cooper Pratt hit his first career home run ▶︎ watch.

The AL West is a coin flip: Mariners (51-50) lead Rangers by 0.5. The Rockies' single-season record is 49 home runs, set by Larry Walker in 1997. Hunter Goodman (COL) projects to 48 and would finish 1 short.

History movers: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), after a two-homer night — Franchise Home Runs: 33 now, pace 52.4, record 47 (Jeff Bagwell, 2000).

Lines of the night: Joshua Kuroda-Grauer hit his first career home run ▶︎ watch; Victor Mederos earned his first career save ▶︎ watch; Riley Cornelio earned his first career win ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 20 in 97 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.6% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 49 in 423 this season). 2 of 326 rate comparisons across 64 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

The so-what: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) has 33 home runs through 102 team games, a 52-homer pace — 10 behind McGwire's 1998 total at the same point (43 of his eventual 70). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons

Yordan Alvarez has 33 home runs through 102 team games, 10 behind Mark McGwire's 1998 pace at the same checkpoint (43). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 26.9% reached 50 and 2.2% reached 60 (n=93).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-20 season

If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 149, it would rank No. 20 among all seasons since 1901 — only 19 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.39 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400