Historic Chases · 2026-07-20

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-20

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Petey Halpin hit his first career home run — and his second ▶︎ watch; Cooper Pratt hit his first career home run ▶︎ watch.

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has struck out 150 times, projecting to 241. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (33) — one every 11.0 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The AL West is a coin flip: Mariners (51-50) lead Rangers by 0.5. The Rockies' single-season record is 49 home runs, set by Larry Walker in 1997. Hunter Goodman (COL) projects to 48 and would finish 1 short.

History movers: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), after a two-homer night — Franchise Home Runs: 33 now, pace 52.4, record 47 (Jeff Bagwell, 2000).

Lines of the night: Joshua Kuroda-Grauer hit his first career home run ▶︎ watch; Victor Mederos earned his first career save ▶︎ watch; Riley Cornelio earned his first career win ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 20 in 97 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.6% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 49 in 423 this season). 2 of 326 rate comparisons across 64 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

The so-what: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) has 33 home runs through 102 team games, a 52-homer pace — 10 behind McGwire's 1998 total at the same point (43 of his eventual 70). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons

Yordan Alvarez has 33 home runs through 102 team games, 10 behind Mark McGwire's 1998 pace at the same checkpoint (43). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 26.9% reached 50 and 2.2% reached 60 (n=93).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-20 season

If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 149, it would rank No. 20 among all seasons since 1901 — only 19 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.39 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400