Historic Chases · 2026-07-22

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-22

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: The Arizona Diamondbacks hung 15 runs on the Athletics (15-5); Ryan Waldschmidt hit his first career home run ▶︎ watch.

The AL West is a coin flip: Rangers (51-51) lead Mariners by 0.5. The Rockies' single-season record is 49 home runs, set by Larry Walker in 1997. Hunter Goodman (COL) projects to 48 and would finish 1 short.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 20 in 99 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.1% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 52 in 431 this season); Junior Caminero (TB) — walk rate up from 6.4% to 13.0% (41 in 643 plate appearances in 2025, 57 in 440 this season). 3 of 312 rate comparisons across 61 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Lines of the night: Cam Cauley hit his first career home run ▶︎ watch; Steven Cruz earned his first career save ▶︎ watch; Luis Rengifo hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 62.

History movers: Marlins — Losing Streak: 9 now, modern record 23 (Philadelphia Phillies, 1961).

Sweep watch: the Rays swept the Blue Jays (3 games) — their 3rd sweep in 27 days. 2 other clubs were swept the same night.

The so-what: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) has 34 home runs through 104 team games, a 53-homer pace — 11 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (45 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons

Yordan Alvarez has 34 home runs through 104 team games, 11 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (45). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 23.7% reached 50 and 2.2% reached 60 (n=93).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-22 season

If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 148, it would rank No. 22 among all seasons since 1901 — only 21 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.38 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400