Historic Chases · 2026-07-26

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-26

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Junior Caminero (261) passed Toby Hall (251) on the Rays' all-time RBI list; Yandy Díaz (546) passed Ben Zobrist (511) on the Rays' all-time RBI list.

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has struck out 155 times, projecting to 237. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (33) — one every 11.5 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The AL West is a coin flip: Rangers (53-52) lead Mariners by 1.5. The Nationals' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood (WSH) projects to 46 and would tie it.

The so-what: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) is holding an AL Triple Crown — he leads the AL in average (.323), home runs (34) and RBI (77). Across both leagues he is 3rd in MLB in average and 2nd in MLB in RBI. No one has won a Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera in 2012, and only 17 have ever been won. Hold all three to the end and it is one of the rarest seasons in the sport.

Lines of the night: Yordan Alvarez (647) passed Doug Rader (600) on the Astros' all-time RBI list; Shawn Ross hit his first career home run ▶︎ watch; One night, two Rays up the franchise RBI list: Junior Caminero (261) past Toby Hall; Yandy Díaz (546) past Ben Zobrist; Julian Garcia earned his first career save ▶︎ watch; Mitch Farris earned his first career save ▶︎ watch.

Milestones reached last night: James Wood reached 30 HR.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 20 in 103 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.9% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 53 in 446 this season); Junior Caminero (TB) — walk rate up from 6.4% to 12.5% (41 in 643 plate appearances in 2025, 57 in 457 this season). 3 of 312 rate comparisons across 61 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Sweep watch: the Rays swept the Guardians (3 games) — their 3rd sweep in 31 days. 1 other club was swept the same night.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The hot hand: Nick Gonzales (PIT) brings a 10-game hitting streak into tonight. Streaks get interesting at 20 and historic at 30.

Tightest race: the AL West — Rangers (53-52) lead Mariners (52-54) by 1.5.

Year-over-year: the Braves are 62-43 — 18 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (44-59).

Rookie watch: Sal Stewart (CIN) has 76 RBI — fourth in the major leagues (from a board of 51).

Rookie watch: Kazuma Okamoto has 23 HR and 65 RBI in 103 games — the most home runs by a rookie this season (from 10 on the board).

Streak ladder: the Marlins have lost 12 straight — 9 shy of the 2024 White Sox (AL record) (21); 11 shy of the 1961 Phillies (modern record) (23).

Franchise ladder watch: Yandy Díaz (TB) sits at 113 career home runs — 1 from Ben Zobrist's 114 on the Rays' all-time list.

On this date in 2010, Matt Garza of the Rays threw a no-hitter.

Clean gloves: the Cardinals have played 10 straight errorless games.

The power outage is plural: Jordan Walker (22 HR) hasn't homered in 14 games; Zach Neto (19 HR) hasn't homered in 13 games. The longest quiet stretches of their seasons are costing them the pace.

From nowhere: Nick Gonzales is now 4th in MLB in batting average — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

From nowhere: Nick Gonzales is now 5th in MLB in hits — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) sits at 23 HR / 26 SB — 7 homers and 4 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 35/40.

James Wood sits at 96 runs — four from the 100 mark.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons

Yordan Alvarez has 34 home runs through 107 team games, 11 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (45). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 23.7% reached 50 and 2.2% reached 60 (n=93).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-22 season

If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 147, it would rank No. 22 among all seasons since 1901 — only 21 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.39 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400