Alex Bregman hit 3 home runs — three-homer games happen roughly 15 times a season — his first career three-homer game ▶︎ watch; Corbin Carroll (305) passed Jay Bell (304) on the Diamondbacks' all-time RBI list.
Historic Chases · 2026-08-12
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
No club in baseball has been hotter: the Red Sox have won 23 of their last 30, 2 clear of the next club among the 30 with a full 30 played. At its peak the run reached 27-3. They were 14 games under .500 on June 18 (29-43); they are 64-56 now. The Rays have won 9 straight, and are 9-1 in their last 10. Collapse watch in the NL West: the Dodgers' lead over the Padres was 15.0 games 18 days ago — it's 8.5 now. The Dodgers have gone 6-10 while the Padres went 13-4.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) is on a 30/30 pace — 27 HR and 30 SB, projecting to 36/40. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.
Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), an ERA of 1.76, tied for 9th among the 4,338 qualified seasons since 1969 with Tom Seaver's 1.76 in 1971 and 13.80 strikeouts per nine innings, 2nd among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file and behind only Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 13.09 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th. The earned run average rank is given from 1969 on because the lowest earned run averages were thrown before the mound was lowered in 1969, and a rank across those eras is not a comparison the numbers support.
Sweep watch: the Rays swept the Athletics (3 games) — their 4th sweep in 20 days. Only 11.2% of team-seasons since 1897 have swept 4 clubs inside 30 days — 340 of 3043. 2 other clubs were swept the same night.
History movers: Rays — Win Streak: 9 now, modern record 22 (Cleveland Indians, 2017).
Lines of the night: Corbin Carroll (100) passed Matt Williams (99) on the Diamondbacks' all-time home run list; Two go-ahead plays: Trent Grisham's tiebreaking double in the 7th put the Yankees ahead for good in a 10-5 win over the Mariners — and he hit 2 home runs, driving in 4 ▶︎ watch; Luis Campusano's walk-off single in the 11th beat the Brewers 4-3 ▶︎ watch. Two starts of note: Luis Castillo allowed one hit over 7.0 scoreless innings (10 K) ▶︎ watch; Adrian Houser allowed two hits over 6.0 scoreless innings (5 K) ▶︎ watch.
What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.4% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 65 in 523 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 23 in 119 this season; Junior Caminero (TB) — walk rate up from 6.4% to 12.5% (41 in 643 plate appearances in 2025, 65 in 521 this season). 3 of 330 rate comparisons across 64 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.
Also last night: Blake Snell struck out 10 over 6.0 IP (in the completed suspended game of August 11) ▶︎ watch; The Chicago Cubs beat the Washington Nationals 12-6; CJ Abrams (WSH) stole his 23rd base — one homer and seven steals from a 30/30 season.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) needs 3 home runs for a 30/30 season; he has 27 home runs and 30 steals. Next scheduled opponent: Washington Nationals.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Matt Olson versus the great home-run seasons
Matt Olson has 35 home runs through 121 team games, 18 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (53). Comparable chases finished with a median of 42 (95% CI 42-43); 6% reached 50 (3.4-10.4% at 95% confidence), from 184 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA franchise record is under pressure
The Astros' single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 46 and would finish 1 short.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate
MLB teams are averaging 8.36 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2025. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Whose season does Matt Olson resemble?
The completed season closest to Matt Olson's projected shape is Adam Dunn's 2004 (78% similarity). The match is strongest in average, power, run production; the largest difference is hit volume. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025