Historic Chases · 2026-08-13

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-08-13

Overnight: Schwarber added 1 strikeout. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has struck out 177 times, projecting to 233. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (37) — one every 11.7 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The box scores did the talking last night: Cade Cavalli carried a NO-HITTER into the 7th — broken up by a single ▶︎ watch; Caleb Durbin hit a grand slam — his first career grand slam ▶︎ watch.

The Rays have won 9 straight, and are 9-1 in their last 10. Collapse watch in the NL West: the Dodgers' lead over the Padres was 14.0 games 18 days ago — it's 8.0 now. The Dodgers have gone 6-10 while the Padres went 12-4.

The so-what: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) is holding an AL Triple Crown — he leads the AL in average (.322), home runs (35) and RBI (87). Across both leagues he is 2nd in MLB in home runs and 3rd in MLB in RBI. The three are not the whole of it: among the 67 qualified AL hitters he also has the highest on-base percentage (.436) and slugging percentage (.621), and the most hits (140), runs (80) and total bases (270) — 5 of the 9 other categories this site checks. OPS is on-base plus slugging, so leading both puts his 1.057 on top as well rather than making it a category of its own. No one has won one since Miguel Cabrera in 2012, and only 17 have ever been won. Hold all three to the end and it is one of the rarest seasons in the sport.

Lines of the night: Jake Bauers' tiebreaking single in the 9th put the Brewers ahead for good in a 5-4 win over the Dodgers ▶︎ watch; Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) went the distance — a complete game (3 hits, 1 runs, 10 K) ▶︎ watch; Cade Cavalli allowed one hit over 8.0 scoreless innings (10 K) ▶︎ watch; Payton Tolle allowed two hits over 8.0 scoreless innings (4 K) ▶︎ watch; Keider Montero (DET) went 6.1 scoreless ▶︎ watch.

Also last night: The Red Sox ended a five-game losing streak; Eugenio Suárez drove in 4 runs ▶︎ watch; Caleb Durbin drove in 5 runs ▶︎ watch.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The hot hand: Jac Caglianone brings a 11-game hitting streak into tonight. The benchmarks ahead: 20 gets noticed, 30 gets a nightly countdown.

One start away: Dylan Cease (TOR) needs 9 strikeouts for 200.

Tightest race: the AL West — Astros (62-60) lead Rangers (60-62) by 2.

Year-over-year: the Braves are 73-48 — 21 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (52-68).

Rookie watch: Sal Stewart (CIN) has 89 RBI — second in the major leagues, and he is a rookie (from a board of 54).

Tonight's matchup: Yordan Alvarez came into this season 3-for-14 lifetime against George Kirby — but 6 strikeouts.

The Padres have won 5 straight, and are 7-3 in their last 10.

The Pirates avoided a three-game sweep.

The Mariners avoided a three-game sweep.

The Tigers moved into an AL wild-card spot. The Rangers fell out of an AL wild-card spot, half a game back.

Call-ups: Charlie Barnes (Dodgers), Jesse Scholtens (Rays), Kameron Misner (Phillies), Greg Weissert (Red Sox), Isaac Mattson (Pirates), Trei Cruz (Tigers), Lazaro Estrada (Blue Jays), Turner Hill (Giants) and Jack Brannigan (Pirates) — the first of them to homer tonight would be the 277th player since 1916 to do it in his MLB debut.

The Twins activated Byron Buxton off the injured list.

The Giants acquired Shay Whitcomb from the Astros.

The Brewers scored three in the 9th to take a game they had been losing.

On this date in 1969, Jim Palmer of the Orioles threw a no-hitter.

Career milestone watch: Freddie Freeman (LAD) sits at 382 career home runs — 18 from 400.

Career milestone watch: Willson Contreras (BOS) sits at 196 career home runs — 4 from 200.

Clean gloves: the MIN have played 6 straight errorless games. The ATL have 5.

The power outage is plural: Freddie Freeman (15 HR) hasn't homered in 22 games; Bryan Reynolds (15 HR) hasn't homered in 21 games. The longest quiet stretches of their seasons are costing them the pace.

Surging: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) has pushed his home run pace from 14 to 21 in three weeks — 7 in 20 games where his own rate predicted 1.9. One of 71 pace comparisons run tonight.

Surging: Ceddanne Rafaela has pushed his RBI pace from 69 to 84 in three weeks — 20 in 20 games where his own rate predicted 8.9.

Luck watch: José Ramírez (CLE) is hitting 0.233 while his batted-ball quality says 0.282. Statcast's verdict: the hits are coming.

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) sits at 27 HR / 30 SB — 3 homers short and already there on steals of a 30/30 season, projecting to 36/40.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 37 home runs through 123 team games, 17 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (54). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44 (95% CI 43-45); 9.6% reached 50 (5.8-15.5% at 95% confidence), from 146 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The HOU single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 46 and would finish 1 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.36 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2025. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Harmon Killebrew's 1963 (79% similarity). The match is strongest in run production, runs, speed; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400