Historic Chases · 2026-08-26 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-08-26

The box scores did the talking last night: Eugenio Suárez hit a grand slam — and drove in 4 runs ▶︎ watch; Connor Norby hit a grand slam — and drove in 5 runs ▶︎ watch.

Kyle Schwarber has struck out 191 times, projecting to 231. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (40) — one every 11.9 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The so-what: CJ Abrams is on a 30/30 pace — 29 HR and 26 SB, projecting to 35/31. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Power and speed in the same season is the whole story from here.

Lines of the night: Cody Bellinger's tiebreaking double in the 7th put the Yankees ahead for good in a 9-3 win over the Astros ▶︎ watch; Tyler Stephenson's tiebreaking single in the 9th put the Reds ahead for good in a 10-9 win over the Giants ▶︎ watch; Randy Vásquez went 5.0 scoreless — and came out after 68 pitches, having allowed no runs over 5.0 innings ▶︎ watch; Jesús Luzardo allowed one hit over 7.0 scoreless innings (9 K) ▶︎ watch.

Also last night: Freddy Peralta allowed two hits over 6.0 scoreless innings (4 K) ▶︎ watch; Ryan Gusto went 5.2 scoreless ▶︎ watch; The Colorado Rockies beat the Washington Nationals 13-1.

Went deep more than once: Héctor Rodríguez hit 2 home runs ▶︎ watch.

Milestones reached last night: Kyle Schwarber reached 40 HR; Sal Stewart reached 100 RBI.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.2% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 71 in 582 this season); Jackson Merrill — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 24 in 131 this season. 2 of 275 rate comparisons across 46 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Sweep watch: the Guardians swept the Angels (3 games) — their 2nd sweep in 6 days.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The stretch run — 135 team games down, the crowns are in play. AL RBI crown: Pete Alonso 91, Yordan Alvarez 91 — pace says 109–110; Yordan Alvarez's pace takes the crown · NL RBI crown: Sal Stewart 100, Alec Burleson 98 — pace says 120–118; a coin flip to the wire · NL Batting title: Luis Arraez .318, Otto Lopez .308 · AL Batting title: Yordan Alvarez .322, Chandler Simpson .308.

On this date in 1991, Bret Saberhagen of the Royals threw a no-hitter (one of 3 thrown on this date).

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 40 home runs through 134 team games, 16 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (56). Comparable chases finished with a median of 45 (95% CI 44-46); 6% reached 50 (3.1-11.4% at 95% confidence), from 133 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 44 and would finish 3 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (83% similarity). The match is strongest in hit volume, speed, run production; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400