Historic Chases · 2026-08-28 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-08-28

Patrick Monteverde took a PERFECT GAME into the 7th — broken up by a home run; Coby Mayo's tiebreaking single in the 10th put the Orioles ahead for good in a 4-3 win over the Athletics ▶︎ watch.

CJ Abrams is on a 30/30 pace — 29 HR and 26 SB, projecting to 34/31. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.1% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 71 in 587 this season); Jackson Merrill — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 24 in 132 this season. 2 of 269 rate comparisons across 45 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Also last night: CIN went deep four times ▶︎ watch; DL Hall struck out all three men he faced to close out his club's night (1.0 IP) ▶︎ watch.

Lines of the night: Two go-ahead plays: Edmundo Sosa's go-ahead home run in the 9th put the Phillies ahead for good in a 5-3 win over the Angels — and he drove in 4 runs ▶︎ watch; Freddie Freeman's tiebreaking single in the 8th put the Dodgers ahead for good in a 2-1 win over the Tigers ▶︎ watch. Three starts of note: Logan Henderson allowed one hit over 7.0 innings (7 K) ▶︎ watch; Andrew Painter allowed two hits over 6.0 innings (6 K) ▶︎ watch; Cam Schlittler went 5.2 scoreless with 8 strikeouts ▶︎ watch. Hunter Brown struck out 10 over 6.2 IP ▶︎ watch.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 40 home runs through 135 team games, 17 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (57). Comparable chases finished with a median of 45 (95% CI 44-46); 6% reached 50 (3.1-11.4% at 95% confidence), from 133 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 198 hits, set by Aubrey Huff in 2003. Yandy Díaz projects to 186 and would finish 12 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (82% similarity). The match is strongest in hit volume, speed, runs; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400