Historic Chases · 2026-08-29 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-08-29

The box scores did the talking last night: Pete Crow-Armstrong hit 3 home runs — three-homer games happen roughly 15 times a season — and led off the game with a home run ▶︎ watch; The Chicago Cubs hung 17 runs on the Cincinnati Reds (17-5).

Kyle Schwarber's tiebreaking double in the 10th put the Phillies ahead for good in a 4-2 win over the Angels. Schwarber has struck out 193 times, projecting to 230. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (40) — one every 12.2 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The so-what: CJ Abrams is on a 30/30 pace — 29 HR and 26 SB, projecting to 34/31. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Neither half carries it alone; the season has to finish on both.

Lines of the night: Pete Crow-Armstrong homered for the 36th time — four homers and eight steals from a 40/40 season; Lars Nootbaar's tiebreaking home run in the 7th put the Diamondbacks ahead for good in a 7-1 win over the Giants — and he drove in 4 runs ▶︎ watch; Michael Harris II's go-ahead double in the 8th put the Braves ahead for good in a 2-1 win over the Rockies ▶︎ watch; Merrill Kelly allowed two hits over 7.0 scoreless innings (7 K) ▶︎ watch; Nolan McLean allowed two hits over 7.0 innings (4 K) ▶︎ watch.

Also last night: Blake Snell struck out 10 over 5.0 IP ▶︎ watch; Jake Bennett went 6.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch; Brycen Mautz struck out 8 over 3.0 IP ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.0% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 71 in 593 this season); Jackson Merrill — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 24 in 133 this season. 2 of 269 rate comparisons across 45 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Milestones reached last night: Sal Stewart reached 30 HR.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The stretch run — 138 team games down, the crowns are in play. AL Stolen-base crown: Jazz Chisholm Jr. 38, Chandler Simpson 37 — pace says 45–44; a coin flip to the wire · NL Hits title: Luis Arraez 163, Otto Lopez 162 — pace says 194–191; a coin flip to the wire · AL Batting title: Yordan Alvarez .32, Chandler Simpson .311 · NL Batting title: Luis Arraez .317, Nick Gonzales .307.

On this date in 2018, Christian Yelich hit for the cycle.

Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 97 runs — three from the 100 mark.

Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker both sit within three of the 100-RBI mark (closest: 99).

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 40 home runs through 136 team games, 17 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (57). Comparable chases finished with a median of 45 (95% CI 44-46); 6% reached 50 (3.1-11.4% at 95% confidence), from 133 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 198 hits, set by Aubrey Huff in 2003. Yandy Díaz projects to 187 and would finish 11 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (83% similarity). The match is strongest in hit volume, runs, speed; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400