Historic Chases · 2026-08-29 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-08-29

Pete Crow-Armstrong hit 3 home runs — three-homer games happen roughly 15 times a season — and led off the game with a home run ▶︎ watch; The Chicago Cubs hung 17 runs on the Cincinnati Reds (17-5).

Kyle Schwarber's tiebreaking double in the 10th put the Phillies ahead for good in a 4-2 win over the Angels.

CJ Abrams is on a 30/30 pace — 29 HR and 26 SB, projecting to 34/31. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Neither half carries it alone; the season has to finish on both.

Also last night: Pete Crow-Armstrong homered for the 36th time — four homers and eight steals from a 40/40 season; Brycen Mautz struck out 8 over 3.0 IP ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.0% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 71 in 593 this season); Jackson Merrill — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 24 in 133 this season. 2 of 269 rate comparisons across 45 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Milestones reached last night: Sal Stewart reached 30 HR.

Lines of the night: Two go-ahead plays: Lars Nootbaar's tiebreaking home run in the 7th put the Diamondbacks ahead for good in a 7-1 win over the Giants — and he drove in 4 runs ▶︎ watch; Michael Harris II's go-ahead double in the 8th put the Braves ahead for good in a 2-1 win over the Rockies ▶︎ watch. Three starts of note: Merrill Kelly allowed two hits over 7.0 scoreless innings (7 K) ▶︎ watch; Nolan McLean allowed two hits over 7.0 innings (4 K) ▶︎ watch; Jake Bennett went 6.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch. Blake Snell struck out 10 over 5.0 IP ▶︎ watch.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 40 home runs through 136 team games, 17 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (57). Comparable chases finished with a median of 45 (95% CI 44-46); 6% reached 50 (3.1-11.4% at 95% confidence), from 133 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 198 hits, set by Aubrey Huff in 2003. Yandy Díaz projects to 187 and would finish 11 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (83% similarity). The match is strongest in hit volume, runs, speed; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400