Historic Chases · 2026-08-28 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-08-28

The box scores did the talking last night: Patrick Monteverde took a PERFECT GAME into the 7th — broken up by a home run; Coby Mayo's tiebreaking single in the 10th put the Orioles ahead for good in a 4-3 win over the Athletics ▶︎ watch.

Kyle Schwarber has struck out 191 times, projecting to 229. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (40) — one every 12.1 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The so-what: CJ Abrams is on a 30/30 pace — 29 HR and 26 SB, projecting to 34/31. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.1% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 71 in 587 this season); Jackson Merrill — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 24 in 132 this season. 2 of 269 rate comparisons across 45 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Also last night: Cam Schlittler went 5.2 scoreless with 8 strikeouts ▶︎ watch; CIN went deep four times ▶︎ watch; DL Hall struck out all three men he faced to close out his club's night (1.0 IP) ▶︎ watch.

Lines of the night: Edmundo Sosa's go-ahead home run in the 9th put the Phillies ahead for good in a 5-3 win over the Angels — and he drove in 4 runs ▶︎ watch; Freddie Freeman's tiebreaking single in the 8th put the Dodgers ahead for good in a 2-1 win over the Tigers ▶︎ watch; Logan Henderson allowed one hit over 7.0 innings (7 K) ▶︎ watch; Andrew Painter allowed two hits over 6.0 innings (6 K) ▶︎ watch; Hunter Brown struck out 10 over 6.2 IP ▶︎ watch.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The stretch run — 137 team games down, the crowns are in play. AL RBI crown: Pete Alonso 91, Yordan Alvarez 91 — pace says 108–108; a coin flip to the wire · NL Hits title: Luis Arraez 163, Otto Lopez 161 — pace says 195–192; a coin flip to the wire · AL Batting title: Yordan Alvarez .318, Chandler Simpson .309 · NL Batting title: Luis Arraez .32, Otto Lopez .307.

On this date in 2023, Jose Altuve hit for the cycle.

Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker both sit within three of the 100-RBI mark (closest: 99).

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 40 home runs through 135 team games, 17 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (57). Comparable chases finished with a median of 45 (95% CI 44-46); 6% reached 50 (3.1-11.4% at 95% confidence), from 133 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 198 hits, set by Aubrey Huff in 2003. Yandy Díaz projects to 186 and would finish 12 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (82% similarity). The match is strongest in hit volume, speed, runs; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400