Historic Chases · 2026-09-02

Overnight: nothing — Kyle Schwarber (PHI) held flat, and flat bends the projection down. Schwarber has struck out 198 times, projecting to 229. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (40) — one every 12.5 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

No club in baseball has been hotter: the Phillies have won 22 of their last 30, 3 clear of the next club among the 30 with 30 games played. They were 10 games under .500 on April 24 (8-18); they are 79-61 now. Collapse watch in the NL East: the Braves' lead over the Phillies was 7.5 games 18 days ago — it's 4.0 now. The Braves have gone 10-7 while the Phillies went 13-3.

The so-what: CJ Abrams (WSH) is on a 30/30 pace — 29 HR and 27 SB, projecting to 33/31. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) struck out five over four innings, allowing five earned. His four-seam averaged 100.9 mph, up 0.2 on the 100.6 he had averaged over his first 22 starts — the hardest four-seam among the 132 starters tracked this season. Four of the 7,102 full-schedule qualified starter seasons the AL and NL have played since 1920 have finished a full schedule above it: Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019, Spencer Strider's 13.55 in 2023, Randy Johnson's 13.41 in 2001 and Pedro Martinez's 13.20 in 1999. Above them on a short schedule: Shane Bieber's 14.20, over the 77.1 innings of 2020 and Jacob deGrom's 13.76, over the 68.0 innings of 2020. It is a board position and not a record: the rate carries about 0.87 of sampling error over 155 innings, and no partial-season history exists to say how often a rate this high in August survives to October. He has 227 strikeouts.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski, 13.18 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.72 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.

For the second straight night: Thomas Saggese's tiebreaking single in the 10th put the Cardinals ahead for good in a 8-6 win over the Dodgers

History movers: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — Triple Crown (AL).

Lines of the night: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) homered for the 39th time — one homer and eight steals from a 40/40 season; Brett Sullivan's walk-off single in the 11th beat the Orioles 6-5 ▶︎ watch; Spencer Torkelson's tiebreaking home run in the 12th put the Tigers ahead for good in a 11-6 win over the Twins ▶︎ watch; Andrew Painter allowed two hits over 7.0 scoreless innings (6 K) ▶︎ watch; Cam Schlittler (NYY) allowed two hits over 8.0 innings (9 K) ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.9% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 73 in 616 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 24 in 137 this season; Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.8% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 104 in 457 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.5% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 481 this season). 4 of 820 rate comparisons across 158 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

Went deep more than once: Henry Bolte hit 2 home runs, driving in 4 — his first career multi-homer game ▶︎ watch; Carter Jensen hit 2 home runs — his first career multi-homer game ▶︎ watch.

Also last night: Trevor Rogers struck out 11 over 6.2 IP ▶︎ watch; Dylan Cease went 6.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch; Aaron Ashby has not allowed a run in his last 15 innings.