Khristian Curtis earned his first career win ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-09-03
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
No club in baseball has been hotter: the Phillies have won 22 of their last 30, 4 clear of the next club among the 30 with 30 games played. They were 10 games under .500 on April 24 (8-18); they are 79-61 now. Collapse watch in the NL East: the Braves' lead over the Phillies was 7.5 games 18 days ago — it's 4.0 now. The Braves have gone 9-7 while the Phillies went 12-3.
CJ Abrams (WSH) is on a 30/30 pace — 29 HR and 27 SB, projecting to 33/31. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.
Also last night: Two go-ahead plays: Nick Sogard's tiebreaking home run in the 8th put the Red Sox ahead for good in a 6-5 win over the Orioles ▶︎ watch; Teoscar Hernández's walk-off double in the 9th beat the Cardinals 3-2 ▶︎ watch. Cal Quantrill allowed two hits over 7.0 scoreless innings (5 K) ▶︎ watch.
Went deep more than once: Adley Rutschman hit 2 home runs ▶︎ watch.
Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.18 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.72 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.
What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.9% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 73 in 616 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 24 in 137 this season; Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.8% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 104 in 457 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.5% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 482 this season). 4 of 820 rate comparisons across 158 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 40 home runs through 140 team games, 19 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (59). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44 (95% CI 43-44); 2.5% reached 50 (1-6.2% at 95% confidence), from 162 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA franchise record is under pressure
The Rays' single-season record is 198 hits, set by Aubrey Huff in 2003. Yandy Díaz projects to 187 and would finish 11 short.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate
MLB teams are averaging 8.36 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2025. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (87% similarity). The match is strongest in hit volume, speed, runs; the largest difference is run production. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025