Historic Chases · 2026-09-06

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-09-06

Aroldis Chapman reached 400 career saves.

Overnight: nothing — Kyle Schwarber (PHI) held flat, and flat bends the projection down. Schwarber has struck out 199 times, projecting to 225. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (42) — one every 12.2 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The Orioles have lost 6 straight, and are 3-7 in their last 10.

The so-what: CJ Abrams (WSH) is on a 30/30 pace — 30 HR and 28 SB, projecting to 34/31. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Neither half carries it alone; the season has to finish on both.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.18 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.72 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.

For the second straight night: CJ Abrams homered for the 30th time — that half of a 30/30 season is done, and he is two steals away.

History movers: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), after homering — Triple Crown (AL) · Bradgley Rodriguez — Scoreless Innings: record 59 (Orel Hershiser, 1988).

Lines of the night: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) homered for the 40th time — that half of a 40/40 season is done, and he is seven steals away; Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado went BACK-TO-BACK-TO-BACK — back-to-back-to-back home runs happen about 6 times a season; Mookie Betts' go-ahead home run in the 8th put the Dodgers ahead for good in a 7-5 win over the Nationals — and drove in 4 runs ▶︎ watch; Bo Bichette's go-ahead home run in the 8th put the Mets ahead for good in a 4-2 win over the Giants ▶︎ watch; Bryan Woo (SEA) allowed one hit over 8.0 scoreless innings (9 K) ▶︎ watch.

Went deep more than once: Jake Burger hit 2 home runs ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.9% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 75 in 629 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 24 in 140 this season; Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.9% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 107 in 468 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 486 this season). 4 of 814 rate comparisons across 157 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

Sweep watch: the Dodgers swept the Nationals (3 games) — their 3rd sweep in 21 days. 1 other club was swept the same night.

Also last night: Payton Tolle struck out 12 over 6.0 IP ▶︎ watch; Gavin Williams (CLE) struck out 11 over 6.0 IP ▶︎ watch; CJ Abrams homered for the first time since August 11, ending a 18-game drought — his 30th of the season.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The hot hand: TJ Rumfield (COL) brings a 11-game hitting streak into tonight. Twenty is when a streak becomes a story; thirty is when it becomes history. Also alive: Tyler Soderstrom (11), Coby Mayo (10).

Tightest race: the AL West — Astros (73-71) lead Rangers (71-73) by 2.

Year-over-year: the Braves are 85-58 — 21 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (64-78).

Behind the plate: Ryan Additon leads the board at 98.1% on 106 calls; Edwin Jimenez sits last (92.1%).

The stretch run — 145 team games down, the crowns are in play. AL HR crown: Yordan Alvarez 38, Junior Caminero (TB) 38 — pace says 43–43; a coin flip to the wire · NL Wins title: Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) 16, Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ) 15 — pace says 18–17; a coin flip to the wire · AL Batting title: Yordan Alvarez .314, Chandler Simpson (TB) .308 · NL Batting title: Luis Arraez (PHI) .318, Nick Gonzales (PIT) .306.

Rookie watch: Sal Stewart (CIN) has 107 RBI — the most in baseball (from a board of 52).

Franchise ladder watch: Fernando Tatis Jr. sits at 875 career hits — 4 from Chase Headley's 879 on the Padres' all-time list.

The Dodgers have won 4 straight, and are 8-2 in their last 10.

The Red Sox completed a four-game sweep of the Orioles.

The Marlins avoided a three-game sweep.

The Blue Jays fell out of an AL wild-card spot, a game back. The White Sox lead the AL Central by 2 1/2 over the Guardians.

Aaron Nola: his 3rd straight win.

Bryan Woo: a 3rd straight quality start and his 3rd straight win.

Call-ups: Michael Arroyo (Mariners), Anthony Nunez (Orioles) and Cooper Hjerpe (Cardinals) — the first of them to homer tonight would be the 277th player since 1916 to do it in his MLB debut.

The Reds activated Graham Ashcraft off the injured list.

The Tigers activated Brant Hurter off the injured list.

The Mets scored four in the 8th to take a game they had been losing.

Last night was the Dodgers' 8th victory in 10 games — and the Tigers' 8th loss in 10.

On this date in 2006, Anibal Sanchez of the Marlins threw a no-hitter.

Career milestone watch: Dylan Cease sits at 75 career wins — 25 from 100; Freddie Freeman (LAD) sits at 383 career home runs — 17 from 400.

Multi-homer machine: Alex Bregman has 3 multi-HR games (tracked since July 13).

Clean gloves: the Angels have played 7 straight errorless games. The Pirates have 6 and the D-backs have 5.

The power outage is plural: Julio Rodríguez (20 HR) hasn't homered in 16 games; Trea Turner (17 HR) hasn't homered in 16 games. The longest quiet stretches of their seasons are costing them the pace.

Surging: Fernando Tatis Jr. has pushed his home run pace from 17 to 23 in three weeks — 7 in 18 games where his own rate predicted 1.9. One of 71 pace comparisons run tonight.

Surging: Rafael Devers (SF) has pushed his RBI pace from 90 to 102 in three weeks — 22 in 20 games where his own rate predicted 11.1.

Luck watch: J.T. Realmuto is hitting .219 while his batted-ball quality says .257. Statcast's verdict: the hits are coming.

Jake McCarthy (COL) and CJ Abrams both sit within two of the 30-steal mark (closest: 29).

Chris Sale (ATL), Nick Martinez (TB), Drew Rasmussen (TB), Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) and Jacob Misiorowski all sit within one of the 15-win mark (closest: 14).

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 42 home runs through 143 team games, 18 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (60). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44 (95% CI 44-45); 3.7% reached 50 (1.6-8.4% at 95% confidence), from 135 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Rays' single-season record is 198 hits, set by Aubrey Huff in 2003. Yandy Díaz projects to 189 and would finish 9 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.36 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2025. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (84% similarity). The match is strongest in hit volume, speed, average; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400