Historic Chases · 2026-09-07

Kyle Schwarber's tiebreaking home run in the 8th put the Phillies ahead for good in a 1-0 win over the Braves. Schwarber has struck out 200 times, projecting to 225. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (43) — one every 12.0 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

No club in baseball has been hotter: the Phillies have won 20 of their last 30, 2 clear of the next club among the 30 with 30 games played. At its peak the run reached 22-8. They were 10 games under .500 on April 24 (8-18); they are 81-63 now.

The so-what: CJ Abrams (WSH) is on a 30/30 pace — 30 HR and 28 SB, projecting to 33/31. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Power and speed in the same season is the whole story from here.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.18 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.66 strikeouts per nine innings, 7th.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.8% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 75 in 633 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 25 in 141 this season; Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.9% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 108 in 472 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 486 this season). 4 of 814 rate comparisons across 157 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

Lines of the night: Jackson Chourio's go-ahead single in the 8th put the Brewers ahead for good in a 4-3 win over the Cubs ▶︎ watch; Lars Nootbaar's tiebreaking sacrifice fly in the 10th put the Diamondbacks ahead for good in a 5-4 win over the Royals ▶︎ watch; Nick Pivetta went 5.0 scoreless — and came out after 63 pitches, having allowed no runs over 5.0 innings ▶︎ watch; Emmet Sheehan struck out 10 over 5.2 IP ▶︎ watch; Brayan Bello went 5.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch.

Also last night: Bradgley Rodriguez has not allowed a run in his last 16 innings; Grant Holmes has not allowed a run in his last 15 innings; Chris Murphy was activated off the injured list — he had not appeared since August 6, 32 days.

Went deep more than once: Coby Mayo (BAL) hit 2 home runs — his first career multi-homer game ▶︎ watch.