Historic Chases · 2026-09-08

Overnight: nothing — Kyle Schwarber (PHI) held flat, and flat bends the projection down. Schwarber has struck out 200 times, projecting to 223. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (43) — one every 12.1 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The Dodgers have won 6 straight, and are 8-2 in their last 10.

The so-what: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) is on a 40/40 pace — 41 HR and 36 SB, projecting to 45/40. Only five players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, and Ohtani. Neither half carries it alone; the season has to finish on both.

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) struck out nine over six and a third innings, allowing one earned. His four-seam averaged 100.7 mph, level with the 100.6 he had averaged over his first 23 starts — the hardest four-seam among the 136 starters tracked this season. Four of the 7,102 full-schedule qualified starter seasons the AL and NL have played since 1920 have finished a full schedule above it: Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019, Spencer Strider's 13.55 in 2023, Randy Johnson's 13.41 in 2001 and Pedro Martinez's 13.20 in 1999. Above them on a short schedule: Shane Bieber's 14.20, over the 77.1 innings of 2020 and Jacob deGrom's 13.76, over the 68.0 innings of 2020. It is a board position and not a record: the rate carries about 0.86 of sampling error over 161.1 innings, and no partial-season history exists to say how often a rate this high in August survives to October. He has 236 strikeouts.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.17 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.66 strikeouts per nine innings, 7th.

Lines of the night: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) stole his 36th base — with 41 home runs banked, he is four steals from a 40/40 season; Elly De La Cruz (CIN) homered for the 25th time — five homers and five steals from a 30/30 season; Luis Campusano's tiebreaking single in the 8th put the Padres ahead for good in a 5-4 win over the Nationals ▶︎ watch; Trea Turner (PHI) homered for the first time since August 8, ending a 24-game drought — his 18th of the season; Reid Detmers (LAA) allowed one hit over 6.0 scoreless innings (9 K) ▶︎ watch.

Also last night: Landen Roupp allowed two hits over 6.0 scoreless innings (2 K) ▶︎ watch; Cam Schlittler (NYY) struck out 10 over 7.0 IP ▶︎ watch; Michael Wacha went 6.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.8% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 75 in 638 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 25 in 142 this season; Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.7% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 108 in 475 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 486 this season). 4 of 808 rate comparisons across 156 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

History movers: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — Triple Crown (AL).

Milestones reached last night: Chandler Simpson (TB) reached 40 SB.