Jose Quintana reached 100 career wins.
Historic Chases · 2026-09-19
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Overnight: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) added 2 strikeouts. Schwarber has struck out 216 times, projecting to 226. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (45) — one every 12.4 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
The AL Central is a coin flip: Guardians (80-75) lead Sox by 1.
Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.15 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.73 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.
A night after his big night, CJ Abrams (WSH) went 0-for-5.
Lines of the night: Angel Martínez homered from BOTH sides of the plate — and hit 2 home runs, driving in 4 — his first career multi-homer game; Ronald Acuña Jr.'s go-ahead home run in the 7th put the Braves ahead for good in a 6-3 win over the Astros — and he drove in 4 runs ▶︎ watch; Brandon Lowe's go-ahead home run in the 8th put the Pirates ahead for good in a 6-5 win over the Royals ▶︎ watch; Trevor Rogers struck out 10 over 8.0 IP ▶︎ watch; Brayan Bello struck out 11 over 8.0 IP ▶︎ watch.
Also last night: Andrew Alvarez went 6.0 scoreless with 8 strikeouts ▶︎ watch; Mason Montgomery has not allowed a run in his last 15 innings; Reid Detmers (LAA) reached 200 strikeouts for the season.
Went deep more than once: Angel Martínez hit 2 home runs, driving in 4 — his first career multi-homer game ▶︎ watch.
What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 26 in 152 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.5% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 78 in 680 this season); Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.5% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 114 in 506 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 495 this season). (5 more cleared the same bar.) 9 of 780 rate comparisons across 150 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.
For the second straight night: Chandler Simpson (TB) took over the stolen bases lead at 45, passing Nasim Nuñez (WSH)
The so-what: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has 45 home runs through 155 team games, a 47-homer pace — 24 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (69 of his eventual 73). That gap is the whole story: it closes, or the chase does.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) needs 3 stolen bases for a 40/40 season; he has 44 home runs and 37 steals. Next scheduled opponent: Cincinnati Reds.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) is the probable starter and needs 6 strikeouts to reach 200 this season. Next scheduled opponent: Toronto Blue Jays.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) is the probable starter and needs 7 strikeouts to reach 250 this season. Next scheduled opponent: Baltimore Orioles.
Jackson Merrill (SD) has a 10-game hitting streak; a hit in his next game would extend it to 11. Next scheduled opponent: Miami Marlins.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 45 home runs through 155 team games, 24 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (69). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46 (95% CI 45-46); 2.5% reached 50 (0.9-7.2% at 95% confidence), from 119 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA franchise record is under pressure
The Rays' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Peña in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 43 and would finish 3 short.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate
MLB teams are averaging 8.37 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2024. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (88% similarity). The match is strongest in average, speed, hit volume; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025