Historic Chases · 2026-09-20

Overnight: nothing — Kyle Schwarber (PHI) held flat, and flat bends the projection down. Schwarber has struck out 216 times, projecting to 224. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (45) — one every 12.4 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The Athletics have lost 6 straight, and are 3-7 in their last 10.

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) struck out four over three innings without an earned run. His four-seam averaged 100.8 mph, up 0.2 on the 100.6 he had averaged over his first 25 starts — the hardest four-seam among the 141 starters tracked this season. Four of the 7,102 full-schedule qualified starter seasons the AL and NL have played since 1920 have finished a full schedule above it: Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019, Spencer Strider's 13.55 in 2023, Randy Johnson's 13.41 in 2001 and Pedro Martinez's 13.20 in 1999. Above them on a short schedule: Shane Bieber's 14.20, over the 77.1 innings of 2020 and Jacob deGrom's 13.76, over the 68.0 innings of 2020. It is a board position and not a record: the rate carries about 0.84 of sampling error over 169.1 innings, and no partial-season history exists to say how often a rate this high in August survives to October. He has 247 strikeouts.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.13 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.73 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.

Lines of the night: Elly De La Cruz (CIN) stole his 28th base — two homers and two steals from a 30/30 season; Nolan Arenado hit a grand slam — and drove in 4 runs ▶︎ watch; Rafael Flores Jr.'s go-ahead home run in the 8th put the Pirates ahead for good in a 4-3 win over the Royals ▶︎ watch; Leo Bernal's tiebreaking home run in the 8th put the Cardinals ahead for good in a 5-3 win over the Nationals ▶︎ watch; A PITCHERS' DUEL in one game: Emmet Sheehan went 5.1 scoreless with 9 strikeouts; Matt Wilkinson went 5.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch.

Also last night: Griffin Jax went 5.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch; Spencer Miles has not allowed a run in his last 17 innings; Seranthony Domínguez has not allowed a run in his last 12 innings.

Went deep more than once: Iván Herrera hit 2 home runs — his first career multi-homer game ▶︎ watch; Jake Cronenworth (SD) hit 2 home runs, driving in 5 ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 26 in 153 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.4% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 78 in 685 this season); Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.5% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 115 in 510 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 495 this season). (5 more cleared the same bar.) 9 of 780 rate comparisons across 150 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

Sweep watch: the Dodgers swept the Giants (3 games) — their 4th sweep in 31 days. Only 11.2% of team-seasons since 1897 have swept 4 clubs inside 30 days — 340 of 3043. 5 other clubs were swept the same night.

For the second straight night: Chandler Simpson (TB) took over the stolen bases lead at 46, passing Nasim Nuñez (WSH)

The so-what: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has 45 home runs through 156 team games, a 47-homer pace — 24 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (69 of his eventual 73). That gap is the whole story: it closes, or the chase does.