The Hot Stove. No games tonight. Below is the season that was — every chase at its final resting place.
Historic Chases · 2026-10-29
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Chandler Simpson (TB) took over the stolen bases lead at 46, passing Nasim Nuñez (WSH).
No club in baseball has been hotter: the Brewers have won 22 of their last 30, 2 clear of the next club among the 30 with 30 games played. At its peak the run reached 23-7. Calvin Faucher has now thrown 20.1 straight scoreless innings — Hershiser's 59 is the mountain.
Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 12.98 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.73 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.
Also last night: Aroldis Chapman has 402 career saves — 7th of 46, counting the 25 closed careers on the all-time list and the 21 active players on our boards. Billy Wagner (422) is next, 21 away; Chris Sale (ATL) has 2,764 career strikeouts — 24th of 82, counting the 25 closed careers on the all-time list and the 57 active players on our boards. Frank Tanana (2,773) is next, 10 away.
What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.7% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 83 in 709 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 27 in 158 this season; Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.5% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 120 in 533 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 498 this season). (5 more cleared the same bar.) 9 of 780 rate comparisons across 150 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.
The so-what: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has 45 home runs through 162 team games, a 45-homer pace — 28 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (73 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 45 home runs through 162 team games, 28 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (73). Comparable chases finished with a median of 45 (95% CI 45-46); 0% reached 50 (0-2.8% at 95% confidence), from 134 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA franchise record is under pressure
The Rays' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Peña in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 42 and would finish 4 short.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate
MLB teams are averaging 8.38 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2024. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (88% similarity). The match is strongest in speed, power, average; the largest difference is run production. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025