Historic Chases · 2026-05-18 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-18

J.T. Ginn carried a NO-HITTER into the 9th — broken up by a single ▶︎ watch.

Oneil Cruz has struck out 72 times, projecting to 248. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

History movers: Corbin Carroll — Triples: 5 now, pace 18, record 36 (Chief Wilson) · Riley Greene — Doubles: 15 now, pace 51, record 67 (Earl Webb).

Lines of the night: Javier Sanoja hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 35 ▶︎ watch.

The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 0-for-4 last night and saw his average slip 7 points to .337. The gap to .400 is now .063.

The so-what: through 48 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 2 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (22 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .337 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .428 clip the rest of the way (190-for-444). That is .004 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .425; an 0-for-4 raises it to .432.

On this date in 2021, Spencer Turnbull of the Tigers threw a no-hitter (one of 2 thrown on this date).

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 10 HR / 16 SB — 20 homers short and 14 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 34/55.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 20 home runs through 48 team games, 5 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (25). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44; 18.6% reached 50 and 4.3% reached 60 (n=70).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-3 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 68, it would rank No. 3 among all seasons since 1901 — only 2 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Pena in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 46 and projects to tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Only X seasons ever

Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 8 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001), Mark McGwire (1999).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400