Historic Chases · 2026-05-25 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-25

HOU threw a NO-HITTER against the Rangers — two or three happen a season ▶︎ watch.

Oneil Cruz has struck out 84 times, projecting to 252. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

History movers: Kyle Schwarber, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 21 now, pace 63, record 58 (Ryan Howard); Home Runs: 21 now, pace 63, record 73 (Barry Bonds) · Cubs — Losing Streak: 9 now, record 23 (Philadelphia Phillies).

Lines of the night: Wilber Dotel earned his FIRST career win ▶︎ watch.

The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 0-for-3 last night and saw his average slip 5 points to .332. The gap to .400 is now .068.

The so-what: through 54 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 3 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (24 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .332 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .437 clip the rest of the way (179-for-410). That is .004 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .433; an 0-for-4 raises it to .441.

On this date in 2014, Josh Beckett of the Dodgers threw a no-hitter.

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 11 HR / 16 SB — 19 homers short and 14 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 33/48.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 21 home runs through 54 team games, 8 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (29). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44; 22.4% reached 50 and 5.1% reached 60 (n=98).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-6 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 63, it would rank No. 6 among all seasons since 1901 — only 5 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 47 and projects to tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Only X seasons ever

Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 8 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001), Mark McGwire (1999).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400