Historic Chases · 2026-05-26 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-26

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Isiah Kiner-Falefa hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 28 ▶︎ watch; Jeremy Peña hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 18 ▶︎ watch.

Oneil Cruz has struck out 84 times, projecting to 247. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

History movers: Yordan Alvarez, after a two-homer night — Franchise Home Runs: 18 now, pace 52.1, record 47 (Jeff Bagwell); Total Bases: 125 now, pace 362, record 457 (Babe Ruth) · CJ Abrams — Franchise RBI: 46 now, pace 133.1, record 131 (Vladimir Guerrero).

Lines of the night: Brett Sullivan hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 27 ▶︎ watch.

The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 1-for-4 last night and saw his average slip 2 points to .330. The gap to .400 is now .070.

The so-what: through 55 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 4 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (25 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .330 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .437 clip the rest of the way (178-for-407). That is .001 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .434; an 0-for-4 raises it to .442.

Streak ladder: the Cubs have lost 10 straight — 11 shy of the 2024 White Sox (AL record) (21); 13 shy of the 1961 Phillies (modern record) (23).

On this date in 2004, Daryle Ward hit for the cycle.

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 11 HR / 17 SB — 19 homers short and 13 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 32/50.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 21 home runs through 55 team games, 8 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (29). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44; 22.4% reached 50 and 5.1% reached 60 (n=98).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-7 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 62, it would rank No. 7 among all seasons since 1901 — only 6 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 131 RBI, set by Vladimir Guerrero in 1999. CJ Abrams projects to 133 and projects to clear it by 2.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Only X seasons ever

Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 100 RBI. Only 8 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001), Mark McGwire (1999).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400