Historic Chases · 2026-05-27 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-27

Dustin May carried a NO-HITTER into the 8th — broken up by a double ▶︎ watch.

Oneil Cruz has struck out 87 times, projecting to 252. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

History movers: Yordan Alvarez, after a two-homer night — Home Runs: 20 now, pace 57, record 73 (Barry Bonds); Total Bases: 134 now, pace 381, record 457 (Babe Ruth) · Otto Lopez, after a 4-hit night — Batting Average: record 0.406 (Ted Williams); Hits: 75 now, pace 213, record 262 (Ichiro Suzuki).

Lines of the night: Trey Gibson earned his FIRST career win ▶︎ watch; Kyle Hurt earned his FIRST career save ▶︎ watch; Blaze Alexander hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 47 ▶︎ watch.

Milestones reached last night: Yordan Alvarez reached 20 HR; Munetaka Murakami reached 20 HR.

The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 4-for-4 last night and pushed his average up 12 points to .342. The gap to .400 is now .058.

The so-what: through 56 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 4 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (25 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .342 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .432 clip the rest of the way (174-for-403). That is .006 easier than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .429; an 0-for-4 raises it to .436.

On this date in 1975, Lou Brock hit for the cycle.

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 11 HR / 17 SB — 19 homers short and 13 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 32/49.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 21 home runs through 56 team games, 8 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (29). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44; 22.4% reached 50 and 5.1% reached 60 (n=98).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-8 season

If Corbin Carroll finishes at the current projection of 24, it would rank No. 8 among all seasons since 1901 — only 7 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 49 home runs, set by Harmon Killebrew in 1964. Byron Buxton projects to 49 and projects to tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Only X seasons ever

Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 8 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Barry Bonds (2001), Sammy Sosa (2001), Mark McGwire (1999).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400