Historic Chases · 2026-06-24 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-06-24

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Dansby Swanson drove in 7 runs — 7+ RBI nights happen about 15 times a season ▶︎ watch; Connor Wong hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 33 ▶︎ watch.

Zach Neto has struck out 117 times, projecting to 231. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

History movers: Dodgers — Team Wins: pace 104, record 116 (1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners).

Lines of the night: LuJames Groover hit his FIRST career home run ▶︎ watch; Dansby Swanson went 5-for-9, 2 HR, 11 RBI across a DOUBLEHEADER — a monster doubleheader day.

The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 2-for-3 last night and pushed his average up 3 points to .340. The gap to .400 is now .060.

The so-what: through 80 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 7 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (36 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .340 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .460 clip the rest of the way (145-for-315). That is .002 easier than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .457; an 0-for-4 raises it to .466.

On this date in 2021, 4 Cubs pitchers combined for a no-hitter.

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 17 HR / 18 SB — 13 homers short and 12 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 34/36.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 29 home runs through 80 team games, 10 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (39). Comparable chases finished with a median of 48; 38.3% reached 50 and 3.3% reached 60 (n=60).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-10 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 59, it would rank No. 10 among all seasons since 1901 — only 9 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 198 hits, set by Aubrey Huff in 2003. Yandy Díaz projects to 198 and projects to tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Pete Alonso's 2019 (74% similarity). The match is strongest in runs, speed, average; the largest difference is run production. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400