Historic Chases · 2026-07-24

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-24

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Chris Roycroft earned his first career save ▶︎ watch; Julian Garcia earned his first career win.

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has struck out 154 times, projecting to 240. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (33) — one every 11.4 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The AL Central is a coin flip: Sox (54-48) lead Guardians by 1.5. The Rays' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Pena in 2007. Junior Caminero (TB) projects to 46 and would tie it.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 20 in 101 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.2% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 53 in 436 this season); Junior Caminero (TB) — walk rate up from 6.4% to 12.7% (41 in 643 plate appearances in 2025, 57 in 449 this season). 3 of 304 rate comparisons across 59 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

History movers: Marlins — Losing Streak: 10 now, modern record 23 (Philadelphia Phillies, 1961).

The so-what: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) has 34 home runs through 105 team games, a 52-homer pace — 11 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (45 of his eventual 73). That gap is the whole story: it closes, or the chase does.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The hot hand: Yordan Alvarez brings a 10-game hitting streak into tonight. Streaks get interesting at 20 and historic at 30. Also alive: Jake McCarthy (10).

Tightest race: the AL Central — White Sox (54-48) lead Guardians (54-51) by 1.5.

Year-over-year: the Braves are 61-42 — 17 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (44-57).

Rookie watch: Sal Stewart (CIN) has 75 RBI — fourth in the major leagues (from a board of 51).

Rookie watch: Kazuma Okamoto has 23 HR and 65 RBI in 101 games — the most home runs by a rookie this season (from 10 on the board).

Streak ladder: the Marlins have lost 10 straight — 11 shy of the 2024 White Sox (AL record) (21); 13 shy of the 1961 Phillies (modern record) (23).

On this date in 1976, Lyman Bostock hit for the cycle.

Clean gloves: the Cardinals have played 8 straight errorless games.

The power outage is plural: Jordan Walker (22 HR) hasn't homered in 12 games; Alec Burleson (15 HR) hasn't homered in 12 games. The longest quiet stretches of their seasons are costing them the pace.

From nowhere: Junior Caminero is now 5th in MLB in home runs — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

From nowhere: Nick Gonzales (PIT) is now 4th in MLB in batting average — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) sits at 22 HR / 25 SB — 8 homers and 5 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 35/39.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons

Yordan Alvarez has 34 home runs through 105 team games, 11 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (45). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 23.7% reached 50 and 2.2% reached 60 (n=93).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-23 season

If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 146, it would rank No. 23 among all seasons since 1901 — only 22 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.39 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400