Historic Chases · 2026-08-09

Overnight: nothing — Schwarber held flat, and flat bends the projection down. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has struck out 173 times, projecting to 236. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (35) — one every 11.9 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

Collapse watch in the NL West: the Dodgers' lead over the D-backs was 11.5 games 18 days ago — it's 7.5 now. The Dodgers have gone 5-10 while the D-backs went 10-7.

The so-what: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) is holding an AL Triple Crown — he leads the AL in average (.322), home runs (35) and RBI (86). He leads the AL in all five of batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, home runs and RBI — every one of them, among the 67 qualified AL hitters. It has been done four times in the AL since 1920, most recently by Frank Robinson in 1966. No one has won one since Miguel Cabrera in 2012, and only 17 have ever been won. Hold all three to the end and it is one of the rarest seasons in the sport.

The season's pitching story, still running: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) has struck out 13.80 per nine innings through 133 innings and 22 starts, the best rate among the 60 qualified starters on tonight's board. One of the 7,102 full-schedule qualified starter seasons the AL and NL have played since 1920 has finished a full schedule above it: Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019. Above them on a short schedule: Shane Bieber's 14.20, over the 77.1 innings of 2020. It is a board position and not a record: the rate carries about 0.97 of sampling error over 133 innings, and no partial-season history exists to say how often a rate this high in August survives to October.

Lines of the night: Derek Hill ended it with a walk-off — and 's tiebreaking single in the 12th put the Phillies ahead for good against the Blue Jays ▶︎ watch; Jake Bauers ended it with a walk-off — and ' tiebreaking single in the 10th put the Brewers ahead for good against the Twins ▶︎ watch; Bo Bichette reached base 6 times — games reaching base six times happen roughly 10 times a season ▶︎ watch; JJ Wetherholt's tiebreaking double in the 8th put the Cardinals ahead for good against the Rockies ▶︎ watch; Michael Harris II's tiebreaking single in the 10th put the Braves ahead for good against the Yankees ▶︎ watch.

Sweep watch: the Rays swept the Mariners (3 games) — their 3rd sweep in 17 days. 1 other club was swept the same night.

Also last night: Stuff watch: Ben Brown's knuckle-curve has run 2.2 mph under his 13-start baseline for 3 straight starts (84.94 vs 87.09); Stuff watch: Dylan Cease (TOR)'s four-seamer has run 1.8 mph under his 15-start baseline for 3 straight starts (95.86 vs 97.62); Donovan Walton recorded his first stolen base of the season — in his game No. 52 ▶︎ watch.