Overnight: nothing — Schwarber held flat, and flat bends the projection down. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has struck out 173 times, projecting to 234. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (35) — one every 12.0 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
Historic Chases · 2026-08-10
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
The so-what: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) is holding an AL Triple Crown — he leads the AL in average (.323), home runs (35) and RBI (86). He leads the AL in all five of batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, home runs and RBI — every one of them, among the 67 qualified AL hitters. It has been done four times in the AL since 1920, most recently by Frank Robinson in 1966. No one has won one since Miguel Cabrera in 2012, and only 17 have ever been won. Three categories, one player: that is what makes it one of the rarest things on the board.
Collapse watch in the NL West: the Dodgers' lead over the D-backs was 11.0 games 18 days ago — it's 7.5 now. The Dodgers have gone 6-10 while the D-backs went 10-7.
The season's pitching story, still running: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) has struck out 13.80 per nine innings through 133 innings and 22 starts, the best rate among the 60 qualified starters on tonight's board. One of the 7,102 full-schedule qualified starter seasons the AL and NL have played since 1920 has finished a full schedule above it: Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019. Above them on a short schedule: Shane Bieber's 14.20, over the 77.1 innings of 2020. It is a board position and not a record: the rate carries about 0.97 of sampling error over 133 innings, and no partial-season history exists to say how often a rate this high in August survives to October. Unchanged from a night ago.
Lines of the night: Taylor Walls' tiebreaking single in the 8th put the Rays ahead for good against the Athletics ▶︎ watch; Jackson Merrill (SD)'s go-ahead home run in the 7th put the Padres ahead for good against the Brewers ▶︎ watch; Freddie Freeman (LAD)'s tiebreaking single in the 7th put the Dodgers ahead for good against the Royals ▶︎ watch; TEX went to extras, beating the Angels 4-1 ▶︎ watch; HOU went to extras, beating the Giants 6-3 ▶︎ watch.
The box scores did the talking last night: Brandon Nimmo (TEX)'s tiebreaking single in the 10th put the Rangers ahead for good against the Angels ▶︎ watch; Jeremy Peña's tiebreaking single in the 10th put the Astros ahead for good against the Giants ▶︎ watch.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
The hot hand: Jordan Walker (STL) brings a 10-game hitting streak into tonight. Twenty is when a streak becomes a story; thirty is when it becomes history.
Tightest race: the AL West — Astros (61-59) lead Rangers (60-59) by 0.5.
Year-over-year: the Braves are 71-48 — 20 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (51-67).
Rookie watch: Sal Stewart (CIN) has 87 RBI — second in the major leagues, and he is a rookie (from a board of 56).
Rookie watch: Munetaka Murakami has 26 HR and 54 RBI in 82 games — the most home runs by a rookie this season (from 10 on the board). He is just the 8th player since 1916 with 26+ home runs and 54+ RBI through his first 82 career games. The rookie HR record is 53 (Pete Alonso (BAL), 2019).
Franchise ladder watch: Yandy Díaz (TB) sits at 115 career home runs — 3 from B. J. Upton's 118 on the Rays' all-time list.
Tonight's matchup: Freddie Freeman came into this season 8-for-15 lifetime against Michael Wacha with a home run.
Tonight's matchup: Riley Greene came into this season 3-for-12 lifetime against Tanner Bibee.
The Red Sox fell 8 back in the AL East and the Orioles 15 1/2. The Twins climbed to 2nd in the AL Central.
Call-ups: Cam Sanders (Orioles), Charlie Barnes (Dodgers), Sammy Peralta (Angels), Ben Peoples (Rangers), Zach Morgan (Giants), Connor Norby (Rockies), Seth Halvorsen (Dodgers), Charles McAdoo (Blue Jays), Simeon Woods Richardson (Blue Jays), Jonathan Pintaro (Mets) and Chase Shugart (Phillies) — the first of them to homer tonight would be the 277th player since 1916 to do it in his MLB debut.
The his club activated Craig Kimbrel off the injured list.
The his club activated Zack Gelof off the injured list.
The Rangers scored three in the 10th to take a game they had been losing.
That is the Rays' 8th victory in 10 games — and the Athletics' 8th loss in 10.
That is the Giants' 8th loss in 10 games.
On this date in 2009, Troy Tulowitzki hit for the cycle.
Career milestone watch: Freddie Freeman sits at 382 career home runs — 18 from 400.
Career milestone watch: Willson Contreras (BOS) sits at 195 career home runs — 5 from 200.
Clean gloves: the TEX have played 15 straight errorless games. The WSH have 9 and the CHC have 7.
The power outage is plural: Dansby Swanson (17 HR) hasn't homered in 19 games; Freddie Freeman (15 HR) hasn't homered in 19 games. The longest quiet stretches of their seasons are costing them the pace.
Surging: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) has pushed his RBI pace from 69 to 84 in three weeks — 19 in 19 games where his own rate predicted 8.4. One of 74 pace comparisons run tonight.
From nowhere: Freddie Freeman is now 4th of 10 on MLB's batting-average board — he wasn't on it a month ago, when it ran 10 deep.
Luck watch: Matt Vierling is hitting 0.207 while his batted-ball quality says 0.256. Statcast's verdict: the hits are coming.
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) sits at 26 HR / 30 SB — 4 homers short and already there on steals of a 30/30 season, projecting to 35/41.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 35 home runs through 120 team games, 16 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (51). Comparable chases finished with a median of 42 (95% CI 42-43); 6% reached 50 (3.4-10.4% at 95% confidence), from 184 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA franchise record is under pressure
The HOU single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 47 and would tie it.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate
MLB teams are averaging 8.38 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2024. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Harmon Killebrew's 1963 (81% similarity). The match is strongest in run production, power, runs; the largest difference is hit volume. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
Yordan Alvarez
HOU
.323AVG
56 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
EXTREME
Home Run Leader
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
35HR
47 projected HR · 16 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
Otto Lopez
MIA
147H
200 projected H · 46 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
Nasim Nuñez
WSH
40SB
54 projected SB · 56 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
Matt Olson
ATL
292B
39 projected 2B · 20 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
133B
18 projected 3B · 14 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Strikeout Leader
204K
278 projected K · record 383 (Nolan Ryan)
EXTREME
ERA Leader
1.76ERA
133.0 IP · chasing a sub-2.00 finish
ON PACE
Triple Crown Watch (AL)
Yordan Alvarez
HOU
.323· 35 HR · 86 RBI
Leads all three league ranks — full board on the Watch page
ACHIEVED
30/30 Club Pace
26/30HR/SB
35/41 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 2 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Saves Leader
Bryan BakerTB
34SV
47 projected SV · record 62
EXTREME
Wins Leader (Team)
BrewersMIL
74W
101 projected wins · record 116
EXTREME
Run Differential Leader
BrewersMIL
+140
+191 projected run differential
Fastest Pitch of the Season
105.5MPH
4-Seam Fastball 2026-06-26