Historic Chases · 2026-09-13

Overnight: nothing — Kyle Schwarber (PHI) held flat, and flat bends the projection down. Schwarber has struck out 210 times, projecting to 227. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (44) — one every 12.3 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The Padres have won 7 straight, and are 8-2 in their last 10.

The so-what: CJ Abrams (WSH) is on a 30/30 pace — 30 HR and 29 SB, projecting to 32/31. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.

Lines of the night: George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) went BACK-TO-BACK-TO-BACK — back-to-back-to-back home runs happen about 6 times a season; Lawrence Butler's walk-off home run in the 9th beat the Mariners 8-7 — and he hit 2 home runs, driving in 4 ▶︎ watch; Alec Bohm's tiebreaking double in the 8th put the Phillies ahead for good in a 9-4 win over the Braves ▶︎ watch; Cam Schlittler (NYY) allowed one hit over 6.0 scoreless innings (8 K) ▶︎ watch; Emmet Sheehan allowed two hits over 6.0 scoreless innings (5 K) ▶︎ watch.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.17 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.77 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.

Went deep more than once: Jonathan Aranda hit 2 home runs — his first career multi-homer game ▶︎ watch; Lawrence Butler (ATH) and Randy Arozarena (SEA) traded two-homer games ▶︎ Butler ▶︎ Arozarena.

Start streaks: Cam Schlittler (NYY) has struck out 8 or more in each of his last three starts (9, 10, 8).

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.8% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 77 in 655 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 26 in 146 this season; Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.6% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 110 in 487 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 489 this season). (2 more cleared the same bar.) 6 of 794 rate comparisons across 153 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

Also last night: Freddy Peralta went 5.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch; Pete Alonso (BAL) reached 100 RBI for the season; The Tampa Bay Rays beat the Houston Astros 14-4 — all nine starters hit safely, 15 hits through the order.

Sweep watch: the Padres swept the Giants (3 games) — their 3rd sweep in 24 days. 3 other clubs were swept the same night.