Historic Chases · 2026-09-21

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-09-21

The box scores did the talking last night: Pete Alonso (BAL) reached 40 home runs and 300 total bases for the season; THE SAME GAME produced both: Aaron Sabato made his MLB DEBUT and went 0-for-3; Bo Davidson made his MLB DEBUT and went 1-for-4.

Overnight: nothing — Kyle Schwarber (PHI) held flat, and flat bends the projection down. Schwarber has struck out 216 times, projecting to 224. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (45) — one every 12.4 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The Athletics have lost 6 straight, and are 3-7 in their last 10.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.13 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.73 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 26 in 153 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.4% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 78 in 685 this season); Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.5% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 115 in 510 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 495 this season). (5 more cleared the same bar.) 9 of 780 rate comparisons across 150 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

Also last night: Pete Alonso's go-ahead home run in the 8th put the Orioles ahead for good in a 4-3 win over the Blue Jays — and he hit 2 home runs — in his first season with the Orioles ▶︎ watch; Roki Sasaki was activated off the injured list — he had not appeared since August 19, 33 days; Andy Pages was activated off the injured list — he had not appeared since August 21, 31 days.

Went deep more than once: Pete Alonso (BAL) hit 2 home runs — in his first season with the Orioles ▶︎ watch.

The so-what: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) has 45 home runs through 156 team games, a 47-homer pace — 24 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (69 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) needs 2 stolen bases for a 40/40 season; he has 45 home runs and 38 steals. Next scheduled opponent: Miami Marlins.

Taj Bradley (MIN) is the probable starter and needs 1 strikeout to reach 200 this season. Next scheduled opponent: San Francisco Giants.

Logan Gilbert (SEA) is the probable starter and needs 6 strikeouts to reach 200 this season. Next scheduled opponent: Houston Astros.

Jackson Merrill (SD) has a 11-game hitting streak; a hit in his next game would extend it to 12. Next scheduled opponent: Los Angeles Dodgers.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 45 home runs through 156 team games, 24 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (69). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46 (95% CI 45-46); 2.5% reached 50 (0.9-7.2% at 95% confidence), from 119 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Rays' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Peña in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 43 and would finish 3 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.37 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2024. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (86% similarity). The match is strongest in average, speed, run production; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400