Historic Chases · 2026-09-23

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-09-23

Ryan McMahon hit a grand slam — and drove in 5 runs ▶︎ watch; Brett Baty hit a grand slam — his first — and drove in 4 runs ▶︎ watch.

The AL West is a coin flip: Astros (78-80) and Rangers (78-80) are even in the standings — zero games back. Calvin Faucher has now thrown 20.1 straight scoreless innings — Hershiser's 59 is the mountain.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) is on a 40/40 pace — 45 HR and 39 SB, projecting to 46/40. Only six players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, Acuña, and Ohtani. Power and speed in the same season is the whole story from here.

Lines of the night: Two go-ahead plays: Mauricio Dubón's walk-off single in the 10th beat the Reds 3-2 ▶︎ watch; Josh Naylor's walk-off single in the 10th beat the Astros 6-5 ▶︎ watch. Chris Sale (ATL) struck out 10 over 5.2 IP ▶︎ watch; Two starts of note: Trey Gibson went 6.2 scoreless ▶︎ watch; Sonny Gray (BOS) went 6.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch.

Also last night: Mitch Farris has not allowed a run in his last 13 innings; Ben Rice (NYY) hit 2 home runs — and led off the game with a home run — his 2nd since July 12 ▶︎ watch; Chris Sale (ATL) reached 200 strikeouts for the season.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.13 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.73 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.7% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 81 in 695 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 26 in 155 this season; Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.7% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 118 in 519 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 497 this season). (5 more cleared the same bar.) 9 of 774 rate comparisons across 149 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

Sweep watch: the Orioles swept the Blue Jays (3 games) — their 3rd sweep in 27 days.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) needs 1 stolen base for a 40/40 season; he has 45 home runs and 39 steals. Next scheduled opponent: Miami Marlins.

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) needs 1 home run and 1 stolen base for a 30/30 season; he has 29 home runs and 29 steals. Next scheduled opponent: Atlanta Braves.

Paul Skenes (PIT) is the probable starter and needs 8 strikeouts to reach 200 this season. Next scheduled opponent: St. Louis Cardinals.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 45 home runs through 158 team games, 24 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (69). Comparable chases finished with a median of 45 (95% CI 45-46); 0% reached 50 (0-2.8% at 95% confidence), from 134 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Astros' single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 42 and would finish 5 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.37 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2024. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (86% similarity). The match is strongest in speed, average, runs; the largest difference is hit volume. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400