Historic Chases · 2026-09-24

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-09-24

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) stole his 40th base to complete a 40/40 season — 45 home runs and 40 stolen bases. Colson Montgomery (CWS) reached 223 strikeouts, tying Mark Reynolds' single-season record (2009).

The AL West is a coin flip: Astros (79-80) and Rangers (79-80) are even in the standings — zero games back. Calvin Faucher has now thrown 20.1 straight scoreless innings — Hershiser's 59 is the mountain.

Pete Crow-Armstrong's 40/40 season is the seventh ever, after Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, Acuña and Ohtani.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.13 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.73 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.

HISTORY LAST NIGHT: Steven Matz reached 1,000 career strikeouts.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.7% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 82 in 699 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 26 in 156 this season; Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.7% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 119 in 524 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 497 this season). (5 more cleared the same bar.) 9 of 772 rate comparisons across 148 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

Lines of the night: Lucas Spence hit 3 home runs — three-homer games happen roughly 15 times a season — his first — and 's tiebreaking home run in the 7th put the Astros ahead for good in a 7-5 win over the Athletics and hit his first career home run — and his second ▶︎ watch; Two go-ahead plays: George Lombard Jr.'s tiebreaking home run in the 8th put the Yankees ahead for good in a 6-4 win over the Rays ▶︎ watch; Spencer Horwitz's tiebreaking sacrifice fly in the 8th put the Pirates ahead for good in a 2-1 win over the Cardinals ▶︎ watch. Two starts of note: Ian Seymour went 5.0 scoreless — and came out after 58 pitches, having allowed no runs over 5.0 innings ▶︎ watch; Joey Cantillo went 5.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch. Tyler Glasnow struck out 11 over 6.1 IP ▶︎ watch.

Went deep more than once: Zack Gelof (ATH) hit 2 home runs ▶︎ watch.

Sweep watch: the Diamondbacks swept the Rockies (3 games).

Also last night: Two scoreless runs: Cade Smith has not allowed a run in his last 12 innings; Tejay Antone has not allowed a run in his last 12 innings.

For the second straight night: Chandler Simpson (TB) took over the stolen bases lead at 46, passing Nasim Nuñez (WSH)

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

01

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) needs 1 stolen base for a 30/30 season; he has 30 home runs and 29 steals. Next scheduled opponent: Toronto Blue Jays.

02

Gavin Williams (CLE) is the probable starter and needs 6 strikeouts to reach 250 this season. Next scheduled opponent: Kansas City Royals.

03

Nasim Nuñez (WSH) needs 1 stolen base to reach 50 this season. Next scheduled opponent: New York Mets.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 45 home runs through 159 team games, 25 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (70). Comparable chases finished with a median of 45 (95% CI 45-46); 0% reached 50 (0-2.8% at 95% confidence), from 134 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play
Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Astros' single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 42 and would finish 5 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.38 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2024. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (87% similarity). The match is strongest in speed, average, hit volume; the largest difference is run production. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Closest to .400
.315AVG
79 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
IMPOSSIBLE
Home Run Leader
45HR
46 projected HR · 25 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
188H
192 projected H · 69 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
49SB
50 projected SB · 79 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
402B
41 projected 2B · 26 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
173B
17 projected 3B · 18 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Strikeout Leader
247K
252 projected K · record 383 (Nolan Ryan)
IMPOSSIBLE
ERA Leader
1.86ERA
169.1 IP · chasing a sub-2.00 finish
ON PACE
Triple Crown Watch (AL)
.315AVG · 41 HR · 102 RBI
leads AVG, level HR, 8 back RBI under 0.1% over 20,000 simulated seasons · full race on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
45/40HR/SB
46/41 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 2 others in the hunt
ACHIEVED
Saves Leader
Cade SmithCLE
41SV
42 projected SV · record 62
EXTREME
Wins Leader (Team)
BrewersMIL
100W
102 projected wins · record 116
IMPOSSIBLE
Run Differential Leader
BrewersMIL
+207
+211 projected run differential