Historic Chases · 2026-09-25

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-09-25

Colson Montgomery (CWS) reached 224 strikeouts, passing Mark Reynolds' single-season record of 223 (2009). Elly De La Cruz (CIN) stole his 30th base to complete a 30/30 season — 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases.

The D-backs have won 6 straight. Calvin Faucher has now thrown 20.1 straight scoreless innings — Hershiser's 59 is the mountain.

Elly De La Cruz's 30/30 season is one of fewer than fifty ever.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.13 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.73 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.

HISTORY LAST NIGHT: Alexander Cornielle made his MLB DEBUT and threw 1.0 innings, struck out 2 and allowed 2 runs ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.7% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 83 in 708 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 26 in 157 this season; Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.6% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 119 in 527 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 497 this season). (5 more cleared the same bar.) 9 of 774 rate comparisons across 149 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

Also last night: Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) struck out 10 over 7.0 IP ▶︎ watch; Jordan Walker (STL) homered for the first time since August 31, ending a 20-game drought — his 29th of the season.

Lines of the night: Dylan Beavers hit a grand slam — his first — and drove in 4 runs ▶︎ watch; Three starts of note: Eury Pérez threw a complete-game ONE-HITTER (8 K) — complete-game one-hitters happen a few times a season ▶︎ watch; Robert Gasser allowed one hit over 6.0 innings (9 K) ▶︎ watch; Jacob Lopez allowed two hits over 6.0 innings (4 K) ▶︎ watch. Two go-ahead plays: Wilyer Abreu's tiebreaking double in the 8th put the Red Sox ahead for good in a 2-0 win over the Cubs ▶︎ watch; Brice Turang's tiebreaking single in the 8th put the Brewers ahead for good in a 8-4 win over the Cardinals ▶︎ watch.

Start streaks: Jackson Jobe has struck out 8 or more in each of his last three starts (8, 9, 8).

Went deep more than once: Pete Alonso (BAL) hit 2 home runs — in his first season with the Orioles ▶︎ watch; Carter Jensen hit 2 home runs, driving in 5 — his first career multi-homer game ▶︎ watch; Munetaka Murakami (CWS) hit 2 home runs — his first career multi-homer game ▶︎ watch.

For the second straight night: Chandler Simpson (TB) took over the stolen bases lead at 46, passing Nasim Nuñez (WSH)

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

01

Nasim Nuñez (WSH) needs 1 stolen base to reach 50 this season. Next scheduled opponent: New York Mets.

02

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) has a 10-game hitting streak; a hit in his next game would extend it to 11. Next scheduled opponent: Athletics.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 45 home runs through 160 team games, 27 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (72). Comparable chases finished with a median of 45 (95% CI 45-46); 0% reached 50 (0-2.8% at 95% confidence), from 134 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play
Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Rays' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Peña in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 42 and would finish 4 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.38 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2024. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (86% similarity). The match is strongest in speed, average, runs; the largest difference is run production. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Closest to .400
.315AVG
79 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
IMPOSSIBLE
Home Run Leader
45HR
46 projected HR · 27 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
189H
191 projected H · 70 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
49SB
50 projected SB · 79 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
402B
40 projected 2B · 26 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
173B
17 projected 3B · 19 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Strikeout Leader
248K
251 projected K · record 383 (Nolan Ryan)
IMPOSSIBLE
ERA Leader
1.86ERA
169.1 IP · chasing a sub-2.00 finish
ON PACE
Triple Crown Watch (AL)
.267AVG · 43 HR · 113 RBI
.048 back AVG, leads HR, leads RBI none of 20,000 simulated seasons · full race on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
45/41HR/SB
45/41 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 2 others in the hunt
ACHIEVED
Saves Leader
Bryan BakerTB
41SV
42 projected SV · record 62
EXTREME
Wins Leader (Team)
BrewersMIL
101W
102 projected wins · record 116
IMPOSSIBLE
Run Differential Leader
BrewersMIL
+211
+214 projected run differential