Nightly briefing

Who is chasing baseball history right now — and whether the numbers say they can get there.

Baseball last night

←Games of 2026-09-21

Pete Alonso (BAL): his go-ahead home run in the 8th put the Orioles ahead for good in a 4-3 win over the Blue Jays.

▶ Pete Alonso's solo home run (39)

Pete Alonso (BAL) reached 40 home runs and 300 total bases for the season.

Andy Pages was activated off the injured list — he had not appeared since August 21, 31 days.

Roki Sasaki was activated off the injured list — he had not appeared since August 19, 33 days.

Zebby Matthews (MIN) struck out 9 over 5 innings.

Aaron Sabato (MIN) made his MLB DEBUT and went 0-for-3.

Last night around the league

More from last night · full recap and scoreboard

Toronto Blue Jays3

Baltimore Orioles4

Washington Nationals2

Detroit Tigers9

Minnesota Twins2

San Francisco Giants5

Read the full recap →

The season’s priorities

The chases that matter

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) leads baseball in WAR (MLB) at 10.4, on pace for 10.8 over 162 games with 6 of his club's games left.

Full chase →

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) has 45 home runs and 38 steals. He needs 2 more stolen bases for 40/40. Model estimate: 35%, using 20,000 simulated finishes.

Full chase →

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) has 28 home runs and 28 steals. He needs 2 more home runs and 2 more stolen bases for 30/30. Model estimate: 8%, using 20,000 simulated finishes.

Full chase →

AL Triple Crown: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) leads AVG at .313, 1 behind in HR (Junior Caminero), 9 behind in RBI (Pete Alonso). Model estimate of leading or sharing all three titles: under 1% against the 78-hitter modeled field.

Full chase →

Probabilities are experimental model estimates. Playing time and future rates are uncertain; the joint club and Triple Crown models have not been backtested. Full methods and assumptions are on the linked watch pages.

All chases →

Tonight's stakes

What to watch today

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) needs 2 stolen bases for a 40/40 season; he has 45 home runs and 38 steals. Next scheduled opponent: Miami Marlins.

Taj Bradley (MIN) is the probable starter and needs 1 strikeout to reach 200 this season. Next scheduled opponent: San Francisco Giants.

Logan Gilbert (SEA) is the probable starter and needs 6 strikeouts to reach 200 this season. Next scheduled opponent: Houston Astros.

Active streaks

The game is running hot

Full streak watch →

11games

Hit streakJackson Merrill SDRecord: 56 · Joe DiMaggio

5games

Win streakPadresModern record: 22 · 2017 Indians

6games

Losing streakAthleticsModern record: 23 · 1961 Phillies

Playoff hunt

The races, and what changed in them

Every race →

The Tigers have been better than 74-83 looks: their runs scored and allowed are those of a 86-win club.

The Angels have been better than 60-96 looks: their runs scored and allowed are those of a 69-win club.

Tightest race NL Wild Card 68/100 · PHI by four games Making a move CLE +3.0 three games back → level Losing ground PHI -4.5 four and a half games clear → level

Lahman + Retrosheet

What history says about the board

How it works →

Pace through history A

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 45 home runs through 156 team games, 24 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (69). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46 (95% CI 45-46); 2.5% reached 50 (0.9-7.2% at 95% confidence), from 119 comparable seasons.

Franchise pressure A

A franchise record is under pressure

The Rays' single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Peña in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 43 and would finish 3 short.

How to read the site · methods and projections →