No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Nick Yorke hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 17 ▶︎ watch; Taylor Ward hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 22 ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-04-19 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Taylor Ward has 11 doubles — projecting to 81, +2 vs Earl Webb's 67 pace. That pace would be the most doubles in any season since 1901. Needs 39 more to reach 50.
Andy Pages sits at .382 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.
The so-what: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 6 HR and 9 SB, projecting to 44/66. Only five players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, and Ohtani. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.
History movers: Aaron Judge, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 9 now, pace 66.3, record 62 (Aaron Judge, 2022); Home Runs: 9 now, pace 66, record 73 (Barry Bonds, 2001) · Drake Baldwin — Franchise RBI: 19 now, pace 139.9, record 139 (Matt Olson, 2023); Runs: 21 now, pace 155, record 177 (Babe Ruth, 1921).
Lines of the night: Graham Ashcraft earned his first career save ▶︎ watch; Kyle Karros hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 22 ▶︎ watch; Derek Hill hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 17 ▶︎ watch.
The .400 chase: Andy Pages went 1-for-4 last night and saw his average slip 7 points to .382. That is 76 at-bats over 21 team games — a hot start rather than a .400 pace, and small enough that one 0-for-4 would take 19 points off it. The gap to .400 goes up once the sample can carry it.
Sweep watch: the Reds swept the Twins (3 games) — their 2nd sweep in 17 days. Our game-by-game record starts 2026-03-25, so that is a floor, not a season total. 4 other clubs were swept the same night.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons
Yordan Alvarez has 10 home runs through 23 team games, even with Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (10). Comparable chases finished with a median of 34 (95% CI 32-35); 5% reached 50 (3.3-7.5% at 95% confidence), from 437 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-1 season
If Matt Olson finishes at the current projection of 74, it would be the most doubles in any season since 1901 — no season on record has finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 52 home runs, set by George Foster in 1977. Sal Stewart projects to 52 and would tie it.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Yordan Alvarez is building a rare combination
At his current pace, Yordan Alvarez would reach at least 190 hits, and 60 HR. Only 2 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. It is the tightest of 2 statistical combinations the engine checked. The recent company includes Sammy Sosa (1998), Babe Ruth (1927).
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.382AVG
3 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
NEAR PACE
Home Run Leader
10HR
70 projected HR · +0 vs Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
29H
224 projected H · 5 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
10SB
70 projected SB · 8 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
112B
81 projected 2B · +2 vs Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
33B
22 projected 3B · 2 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.333AVG · 10 HR · 21 RBI
.049 back AVG, none higher HR, level RBI full race on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
6/9HR/SB
44/66 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 11 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Braves
15W
110 projected wins · record 116
NEAR PACE
Run Differential Leader
Braves
+57
+420 projected run differential