Historic Chases · 2026-08-13

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-08-13

Cade Cavalli carried a NO-HITTER into the 7th — broken up by a single ▶︎ watch; Caleb Durbin hit a grand slam — his first ▶︎ watch.

The Rays have won 9 straight, and are 9-1 in their last 10. Collapse watch in the NL West: the Dodgers' lead over the Padres was 14.0 games 18 days ago — it's 8.0 now. The Dodgers have gone 6-10 while the Padres went 12-4.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) is on a 30/30 pace — 27 HR and 30 SB, projecting to 36/40. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.

Also last night: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) hit 2 home runs — and led off the game with a home run ▶︎ watch; The Pittsburgh Pirates beat the Miami Marlins 13-1.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), an ERA of 1.76, tied for 9th among the 4,338 qualified seasons since 1969 with Tom Seaver's 1.76 in 1971 and 13.80 strikeouts per nine innings, 2nd among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file and behind only Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 13.09 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th. The earned run average rank is given from 1969 on because the lowest earned run averages were thrown before the mound was lowered in 1969, and a rank across those eras is not a comparison the numbers support.

Went deep more than once: Rafael Flores Jr. hit 2 home runs, driving in 6 — his first career multi-homer game ▶︎ watch.

Lines of the night: Jake Bauers' tiebreaking single in the 9th put the Brewers ahead for good in a 5-4 win over the Dodgers ▶︎ watch; Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) went the distance — a complete game (3 hits, 1 run, 10 K) ▶︎ watch; Four starts of note: Payton Tolle allowed two hits over 8.0 scoreless innings (4 K) ▶︎ watch; Walbert Ureña allowed two hits over 6.0 scoreless innings (5 K) ▶︎ watch; Keider Montero (DET) went 6.1 scoreless ▶︎ watch; Logan Gilbert (SEA) went 6.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 12.3% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 65 in 527 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 23 in 119 this season; Junior Caminero (TB) — walk rate up from 6.4% to 12.5% (41 in 643 plate appearances in 2025, 65 in 521 this season). 3 of 322 rate comparisons across 62 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

01

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) needs 3 home runs for a 30/30 season; he has 27 home runs and 30 steals. Next scheduled opponent: St. Louis Cardinals.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 37 home runs through 123 team games, 17 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (54). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44 (95% CI 43-45); 9.6% reached 50 (5.8-15.5% at 95% confidence), from 146 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play
Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Astros' single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 46 and would finish 1 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.36 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2025. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Harmon Killebrew's 1963 (79% similarity). The match is strongest in run production, runs, speed; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025
Closest to .400
.322AVG
57 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
EXTREME
Home Run Leader
37HR
49 projected HR · 17 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
148H
197 projected H · 49 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
40SB
53 projected SB · 59 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
302B
40 projected 2B · 20 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
143B
19 projected 3B · 13 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Strikeout Leader
204K
271 projected K · record 383 (Nolan Ryan)
IMPOSSIBLE
ERA Leader
1.76ERA
133.0 IP · chasing a sub-2.00 finish
ON PACE
Triple Crown Watch (AL)
.322AVG · 35 HR · 87 RBI
none higher AVG, level HR, none higher RBI 25.0% over 20,000 simulated seasons · full race on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
27/30HR/SB
36/40 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 1 other in the hunt
ON PACE
Saves Leader
Bryan BakerTB
34SV
46 projected SV · record 62
EXTREME
Wins Leader (Team)
BrewersMIL
75W
100 projected wins · record 116
IMPOSSIBLE
Run Differential Leader
DodgersLAD
+141
+187 projected run differential