Historic Chases · 2026-09-14

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-09-14

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) homered for the 42nd time and stole his 37th base — with 42 home runs banked, he is three steals from a 40/40 season; José Soriano carried a NO-HITTER into the 7th — broken up by a single ▶︎ watch.

The Padres have won 8 straight, and are 9-1 in their last 10.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) is on a 40/40 pace — 42 HR and 37 SB, projecting to 45/40. Only six players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, Acuña, and Ohtani. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.17 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.77 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.

Also last night: Randy Arozarena (SEA) reached 100 runs for the season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) reached 100 RBI for the season; Quinn Mathews struck out 8 over 6.2 IP ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 26 in 147 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.7% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 77 in 660 this season); Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 23.0% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 113 in 491 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 489 this season). (2 more cleared the same bar.) 6 of 788 rate comparisons across 152 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

History movers: Padres — Win Streak: 8 now, modern record 22 (Cleveland Indians, 2017).

Start streaks: Reid Detmers (LAA) has struck out 8 or more in each of his last three starts (8, 9, 8).

Lines of the night: Two go-ahead plays: Ben Rice's tiebreaking single in the 8th put the Yankees ahead for good in a 8-3 win over the Twins ▶︎ watch; Corbin Carroll's walk-off home run in the 9th beat the Marlins 8-7 ▶︎ watch. Tarik Skubal went 7.0 scoreless with 9 strikeouts ▶︎ watch; Two scoreless runs: Hagen Smith has not allowed a run in his last 17 innings; Calvin Faucher has not allowed a run in his last 16 innings.

For the second straight night: Chandler Simpson (TB) took over the stolen bases lead at 41, passing Nasim Nuñez (WSH)

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) needs 3 stolen bases for a 40/40 season; he has 42 home runs and 37 steals. Next scheduled opponent: Atlanta Braves.

CJ Abrams (WSH) needs 1 stolen base for a 30/30 season; he has 30 home runs and 29 steals. Next scheduled opponent: Philadelphia Phillies.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 44 home runs through 150 team games, 22 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (66). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46 (95% CI 45-47); 3.6% reached 50 (1.4-8.8% at 95% confidence), from 112 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Rays' single-season record is 198 hits, set by Aubrey Huff in 2003. Yandy Díaz projects to 188 and would finish 10 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.36 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2025. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (86% similarity). The match is strongest in run production, hit volume, speed; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400