Historic Chases · 2026-09-14

Overnight: nothing — Kyle Schwarber (PHI) held flat, and flat bends the projection down. Schwarber has struck out 210 times, projecting to 227. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (44) — one every 12.3 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The Padres have won 8 straight, and are 9-1 in their last 10.

The so-what: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) is on a 40/40 pace — 42 HR and 37 SB, projecting to 45/40. Only five players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, and Ohtani. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.

Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), 13.17 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.77 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.

Also last night: Randy Arozarena (SEA) reached 100 runs for the season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) reached 100 RBI for the season; Quinn Mathews struck out 8 over 6.2 IP ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 26 in 147 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.7% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 77 in 660 this season); Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 23.0% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 113 in 491 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.4% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 489 this season). (2 more cleared the same bar.) 6 of 788 rate comparisons across 152 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.

History movers: Padres — Win Streak: 8 now, modern record 22 (Cleveland Indians, 2017).

Start streaks: Reid Detmers (LAA) has struck out 8 or more in each of his last three starts (8, 9, 8).

Lines of the night: Ben Rice's tiebreaking single in the 8th put the Yankees ahead for good in a 8-3 win over the Twins ▶︎ watch; Corbin Carroll's walk-off home run in the 9th beat the Marlins 8-7 ▶︎ watch; Tarik Skubal went 7.0 scoreless with 9 strikeouts ▶︎ watch; Hagen Smith has not allowed a run in his last 17 innings; Calvin Faucher has not allowed a run in his last 16 innings.

For the second straight night: Chandler Simpson (TB) took over the stolen bases lead at 41, passing Nasim Nuñez (WSH)